[Analysis] Bitcoin Seen Unlikely to Fall to $10,000 Even if S&P 500 Corrects 20%

A market analysis argues that the odds of Bitcoin falling as far as $10,000 on the back of a 20% correction in U.S. stocks are historically very low.

On Oct. 17, on-chain analyst Darkfost challenged Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone’s scenario calling for Bitcoin to return to $10,000. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Darkfost wrote that such an outcome is historically highly unlikely.

With Bitcoin trading at about $81,460, it would need to drop another 87% to reach $10,000, according to Darkfost. That would mark a drawdown of about 92% from its all-time high.

Darkfost said Bitcoin has recorded a decline of more than 92% on a daily closing basis only once in its history: a 92.9% slump in 2011. The maximum drawdowns in later bear markets were 82.5% in 2015, 82.6% in 2019, 74.4% in 2022 and 54.2% in 2026.

He also cited Bitcoin’s market size. Its peak market capitalization was only about $117 million in 2011, but had risen to about $2.45 trillion in 2025. Darkfost said that roughly 20,940-fold increase makes a collapse on the scale of earlier cycles less likely.

Darkfost also compared S&P 500 corrections with Bitcoin’s declines. When the S&P 500 fell about 19.53% in 2018, Bitcoin dropped as much as 80% and fell to around $3,800. By contrast, when the S&P 500 corrected by more than 19% in April 2025, Bitcoin declined only about 22%.

He also said the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% only five times during Bitcoin’s history. In 2020, Bitcoin fell as much as 73.8% while the S&P 500 dropped 24% to 32%. In 2022, Bitcoin declined as much as 71% as the S&P 500 fell 21% to 26%. In 2023, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown reached 75.5% while the S&P 500 underwent a correction of about 20%.

“If Bitcoin were to return to $10,000 simply because the S&P 500 corrected by more than 20%, it would be the first time in history,” he wrote. “Given Bitcoin’s current market size, the likelihood is very low.”