Analysis: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Balances Down 345,000 Since July 30 as Selling Pressure Eases

Bitcoin long-term holders have cut their balances by 345,000 BTC since late July, though the pace of wallet outflows has slowed recently, according to an analysis.

In a newsletter published on Oct. 19, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that long-term holder balances had fallen to 16.06 million BTC from 16.41 million BTC on July 30.

That amounts to a decline of about 345,000 BTC, or roughly 2% of the total.

Over the past week, long-term holder balances fell by 9,000 BTC. Over the past three days, however, they rose by 40,000 BTC.

The frequency of long-term holder distribution has also eased. Over the previous 15 days, the number of days when long-term holder balances declined reached 13 between Oct. 6 and Oct. 10, the highest level in the past year. As of Oct. 19, that figure had fallen to 10.

Adler said selling pressure from long-term holders could ease further if the reading drops to the more typical level of seven days out of 15.

A return to the 13-to-15-day range, by contrast, would indicate a stronger flow of older Bitcoin back into the market.

Bitcoin is currently trading at about $82,800, while the average cost basis for long-term holders is about $48,600.

That leaves long-term holders with unrealized gains of about 70% on average.

Still, a decline in long-term holder balances does not necessarily mean an equivalent amount has been sold. Transfers between personal wallets can also be counted as a drop in long-term holder balances, while Bitcoin that had not moved for an extended period can also be newly classified as long-term holder supply.