JPMorgan Says Bitcoin May Return 10% a Year Over Next Decade, Outpacing US Stocks and Gold

JPMorgan Asset Management projects that Bitcoin will generate average annual returns of 10% over the next decade, outperforming both US stocks and gold.

Cointelegraph reported on October 20 that JPMorgan Asset Management, in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, put Bitcoin's annual return at 10%. That compares with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold.

The firm, however, stopped short of recommending Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool. The report said Bitcoin's market correlations are unstable and that it does not currently recommend the token as a diversification asset. Instead, it characterized Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

In a bullish scenario, Bitcoin's average annual return could rise to 16.6%. In a bearish case, it could post an average annual loss of 11.2%. JPMorgan said the estimates reflect Bitcoin's supply growth relative to money supply, comparisons with gold's role, and trends in network adoption.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan wrote on X, "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, and now they include you in their long-term capital market assumptions report and predict you'll be the best-performing asset over the next 10 years."

Bitwise offered a more aggressive forecast in its own report published in August 2025. It said Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 and generate average annual returns of 28.3% under its base-case scenario.