Bitcoin’s $82,500 Support Seen as Crucial Ahead of Oct. 28 FOMC Volatility Test

Bitcoin is holding a key support level around $82,500, with price volatility seen increasing around the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 28, crypto market maker Wintermute said.

In a market report released on Oct. 20, Wintermute said Bitcoin has traded near $82,500 for more than three weeks. The firm said the level had acted as resistance during the advance but is now serving as support.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,500 last week before recovering and posting a weekly close back above the level, Wintermute said. A decisive break above $87,000 could signal further upside, while a clear move below $82,500 could turn the level back into resistance and open the way for a drop to the low-$70,000 range.

The recent macroeconomic backdrop has weighed on Bitcoin. US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% previously, while core CPI increased 0.3% from the prior month, above market expectations for 0.2%.

Concerns over artificial intelligence-related investment also pressured sentiment toward risk assets. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% over the past week, while Bitcoin slipped 1.99%, indicating relative resilience. Wintermute highlighted Bitcoin’s outperformance of about 3.5 percentage points versus the Nasdaq.

Interest-rate expectations were also identified as a key variable. Markets treat a hold at the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting as the base case and are pricing in about a 15% to 17% chance of a rate increase. Wintermute added that a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve could bring forward expectations for a December rate hike and send Treasury yields higher again.

Altcoins have remained weaker than Bitcoin. Major altcoins fell an average 5.69% over the past week, while capital appeared to rotate out of altcoins and into larger cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether.

Wintermute said the risk-reward profile currently looks more attractive in Bitcoin and Ether than in altcoins. A broader altcoin rally is more likely to resume only after Bitcoin rises first, it added.

The firm also said implied volatility in the options market remains low. With the FOMC meeting, the US midterm elections and third-quarter corporate earnings ahead, Wintermute said the narrow trading range centered on $82,500 is likely to break soon.