Bitcoin Supply in Profit Falls to 53.8%, Signaling Wait-and-See Phase Typical of Late Bear Market
Summary
- On-chain analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin's share of supply in profit had fallen to 53.8%, signaling that investors have entered a wait-and-see phase.
- He interpreted fluctuations in the share of supply in profit around the 50% mark as a neutral zone marked by weak investor conviction.
- Darkfost said similar patterns repeatedly appeared in the late stages of past bear markets and that patience is needed until supply in profit becomes firmly established.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin investors have entered a wait-and-see period without a clear sense of direction, according to on-chain analyst Darkfost.
On October 20, Darkfost wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that the share of Bitcoin supply currently in profit had fallen to 53.8%. The ratio had recently stood above 60%.
The metric excludes Bitcoin that has not moved for more than 10 years. That is intended to better reflect the profit-and-loss position of current market participants by removing coins that have remained illiquid for an extended period.
Darkfost interpreted moves in the share of supply in profit around the 50% mark as a "neutral zone" that reflects weak investor conviction. The amount of supply in profit is rising again, but not to the point where holders feel enough gains to step up additional buying.
He said the same pattern has repeatedly appeared near the end of past bear markets. After the share of supply in profit fell below 40% during capitulation, it took time to climb back above 50% on a sustained basis.
"It takes time to restore real investor confidence and draw in new demand through price gains," Darkfost wrote. "This is a period that requires patience until supply in profit becomes firmly established."
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.