BOK Holds Benchmark Rate at 3.00%, Pauses After Two Hikes

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.00%, pausing after back-to-back increases in July and August. Market attention is now turning to whether the central bank will deliver another hike next month.

The BOK’s Monetary Policy Board left the rate unchanged at its monetary policy meeting on Oct. 22. The central bank resumed rate increases in July and raised rates again in August, but opted to hold at the current level this time.

Inflation remains above target. Consumer prices rose 2.9% in September, higher than the BOK’s 2% inflation target. With oil prices staying elevated because of the war in the Middle East, inflation is forecast to remain near 3% this month as well.

Exports and the growth trend will also factor into future rate decisions. South Korea’s current-account surplus for January through August totaled $27.92 billion, about four times the level a year earlier. In August, the BOK raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%. Rising home prices in parts of the Seoul metropolitan area and a renewed increase in household lending at major banks this month are also being watched from a financial-stability standpoint.

At the same time, a stronger won and heavier interest burdens are seen as reasons for caution on further tightening. The won traded as strong as 1,322.8 per dollar during the previous session. The BOK estimates that a 0.25 percentage-point increase in the benchmark rate would raise interest costs by about $2.39 billion for households and $2.61 billion for companies.

The Monetary Policy Board’s final meeting of the year will be held on Nov. 26. Before then, an advance reading of third-quarter real gross domestic product will be released on Oct. 27, followed by October consumer-price data on Nov. 2. BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song is scheduled to explain the background to the rate decision and the policy outlook at a press briefing at 11:10 a.m. on Oct. 22.