Bitcoin Posts Net Exchange Outflows of 1,500 BTC a Day as Futures Bulls, Bears Stay Balanced

Bitcoin has continued to flow out of exchanges over the past month, while the futures market shows no clear edge for either buyers or sellers, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr.

In a newsletter published on October 23, Adler wrote that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average of net exchange outflows now stands at about 1,500 BTC a day.

That is roughly half the level of about 3,000 BTC a day a week earlier. The recent decline in outflows was not driven by new inflows to exchanges, he wrote. Instead, it reflected the removal of a large withdrawal recorded on September 22 from the 30-day calculation window.

As long as the net exchange outflow indicator remains below zero, the supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges can be seen as continuing to shrink. If the gauge rises above zero, Bitcoin would be flowing back to exchanges, potentially increasing selling pressure.

In the futures market, buyers and sellers are nearly evenly matched. The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s futures positioning index now stands at 0.3, up slightly from -0.5 a week earlier.

The daily reading has ranged from -20.5 to 29 over the past week. That suggests trading activity remains active, but neither side has established a sustained advantage.

Adler said that continued net outflows from exchanges, combined with a futures positioning index holding above zero, could signal demand support in both the spot and futures markets.

Conversely, if Bitcoin flows back to exchanges and the futures positioning index falls below zero, that could point to a simultaneous increase in spot selling supply and a stronger selling bias in the futures market.