Bitcoin Breaks From Past Post-Midterm Bear-Market Lows, Up 40% Since July 1 Bottom

Bitcoin is moving differently from its past pattern of forming bear-market lows shortly after U.S. midterm elections, CoinDesk reported on October 23.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin posted major bear-market bottoms in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022. Those lows came about 71 days, 38 days and 13 days, respectively, after the preceding U.S. midterm elections.

This year, by contrast, Bitcoin's low for the year was set on July 1, about 125 days before the November 3 midterm elections. Bitcoin fell to $57,850 at the time and had recovered to about $81,455 by October 22, up roughly 40% from that low.

Bitcoin showed clear weakness around past midterm election periods. It fell about 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and about 37% ahead of the 2022 midterms.

Tech stocks also weakened during some midterm cycles. The Invesco QQQ Trust dropped about 23% from late September 2018 to its December low that year, and fell 17% in the three months before the 2022 midterms. Before the 2014 midterms, however, it rose 17% over the prior six months, suggesting no consistent pattern.

Over the past 30 days, both Bitcoin and the QQQ have fallen about 6%. Over the past 90 days, however, Bitcoin has gained 26%, while the QQQ has risen just 3%.

CoinDesk said Bitcoin's past weakness around midterm elections may have been tied more closely to its own market cycle than to the elections themselves.