Bitcoin Implied Volatility Near Three-Year Low, Signaling Potential for Bigger Price Swings

Bitcoin is holding firm around $82,000, with inflows into US spot exchange-traded funds supporting prices, according to Bitwise.

On Oct. 23, the crypto asset manager wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that Bitcoin was maintaining solid price action near $82,000, the average purchase price for ETF investors.

Bitwise put the average cost basis for short-term holders at about $74,800 and the True Market Mean, a gauge of the broader market's break-even level, at about $77,600. It said that range could serve as a key dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment in the near term.

Bitcoin's 30-day and 60-day trading ranges have narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively. At-the-money implied volatility in the options market has also fallen near the bottom of its three-year range, raising the potential for wider price swings ahead.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows of $1.074 billion so far this week. Cumulative volume delta, or CVD, in the spot market has also improved, supporting buying interest.

Still, realized profits among long-term holders are increasing and net position change has turned negative, suggesting some supply is returning to the market. That has been cited as a factor limiting further gains.

Ethereum was trading around $2,400. Bitwise said the token recently moved above its nine-day exponential moving average but remained below its 21-day EMA, indicating upside momentum is still not particularly strong.

It added that the $2,200 to $2,300 range has formed a strong support zone, where realized price overlaps with the average cost basis of short-term holders.

By contrast, US spot Ethereum ETFs have posted net outflows of $114.5 million so far this week. Even so, call buying has outpaced puts in the options market, indicating traders still hold a positive directional view.

Meanwhile, Solana implemented its Alpenglow upgrade on Oct. 21. Bitwise said the upgrade reduced block finality time to 150 milliseconds from about eight seconds, significantly improving network stability and transaction confirmation speed.