Samsung Poised to Top SK Hynix in HBM Revenue for First Time, With Q4 Share Near 40%

Samsung Electronics Co. may surpass SK Hynix Inc. in high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, revenue for the first time, according to a new market projection. Analysts say continued growth in HBM4 supply and improving yields could also spur a reassessment of Samsung's memory earnings and valuation.

Bernstein estimated Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue this year at $8.7 billion as of Oct. 27, up 33% from the previous quarter. Over the same period, SK Hynix's HBM revenue is projected to rise 11% to $7.6 billion.

If Bernstein's estimates prove accurate, Samsung would overtake SK Hynix for the first time on a quarterly HBM revenue basis. The estimates were derived from regional HBM export data.

A key driver behind Samsung's HBM expansion is increased supply of next-generation HBM4. The chip is being adopted for Nvidia's next-generation AI accelerator, Vera Rubin, with related revenue now beginning to show up at both Samsung and SK Hynix.

According to Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix held the largest share of global HBM revenue in the second quarter at 50%, followed by Samsung at 33% and Micron Technology Inc. at 18%. SK Hynix's share has fallen from 64% in the second quarter of last year, while Samsung's portion has continued to expand.

Brokerages also project Samsung's HBM market share could approach 40% in the fourth quarter. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, said Samsung's HBM share, which was 33% in the second quarter, would come close to 40% by the fourth quarter. He added that next year's annual HBM4-centered production volume is estimated to have been fully committed under supply contracts.

SK Hynix is also ramping up HBM4 supply, setting the stage for fiercer competition between the two companies. The market's direction will likely hinge on Nvidia's production schedule for its next-generation AI accelerators, as well as each company's pace of HBM4 mass production, yields and supply capacity.

Jung Woo-sung, an analyst at LS Securities, said Samsung appears to have secured relatively strong manufacturability in HBM4. He said intensifying competition between the two companies reflects a normalization of rivalry among suppliers rather than a slowdown in HBM market growth.

Industry officials say Samsung overtaking SK Hynix in HBM revenue would mark a symbolic turning point in the market's competitive landscape. If improved HBM4 yields and a greater share of high-value products lead to stronger profitability, Samsung's memory business could see both earnings forecasts and valuation move higher.