Mizuho Cuts Circle Target to $43, Says AI Agent Growth Threatens Reserve Revenue by 10%-20%
Summary
- Mizuho Securities said it lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group to $43 from $45 and maintained an "underperform" rating, citing a 10%-20% risk to medium-term reserve revenue from the spread of AI agents.
- Mizuho said AI agents could steer users toward FDIC-insured fiat products and higher-yielding stablecoins, creating the potential for as much as a $9 billion decline in USDC market capitalization and an 18% drop in reserve revenue.
- Mizuho said it cut its 2027 forecast for average USDC in circulation to $101 billion from $108 billion, reserve revenue to $4.1 billion from $4.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $603 million from $635 million, each by about 5%.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Mizuho Securities lowered its price target on USDC issuer Circle, warning that the spread of artificial intelligence agents could pose a significant threat to the company’s medium-term reserve revenue.
Crypto-focused media outlet The Block reported on October 27 that Mizuho cut its price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to $43 from $45 and maintained its underperform rating. Circle shares fell 7% to close at $79.84 on the day, implying about 46% downside to Mizuho’s target.
In a report, Mizuho analysts wrote that “AI personal assistant engines will be a clear risk factor for Circle’s medium-term reserve revenue.” As AI agent adoption expands, USDC holders could shift to fiat products or other platforms offering higher yields. Mizuho estimated the medium-term downside risk to reserve revenue at 10% to 20%.
Mizuho’s simulations showed that AI agents, including Muse, tended to recommend FDIC-insured fiat products such as SoFi savings accounts instead of USDC. Even when users insisted on holding crypto, the AI agents favored platforms outside Circle’s ecosystem rather than direct holdings of USDC.
Under a scenario of rapid AI adoption, Mizuho projected that about $7 billion would move into fiat products and another $2 billion into higher-yielding stablecoins. In that case, USDC’s market capitalization could shrink by as much as $9 billion, while Circle’s reserve revenue could decline 18%.
Mizuho also lowered its 2027 forecast for average USDC in circulation to $101 billion from $108 billion. It cut its reserve revenue forecast by 5% to $4.1 billion from $4.3 billion, and lowered its adjusted EBITDA estimate by about 5% to $603 million from $635 million.
Separately, Circle said earlier this month that it posted about $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. Over the same period, USDC’s on-chain transaction settlement volume exceeded $36 trillion, and as of June 2026, USDC accounted for 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume, up sharply from 60% a year earlier.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.