Odds of Fed Rate Hold on Oct. 28 Rise to 90.6%
JH Kim
Summary
- The Federal Reserve's odds of holding its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Oct. 28 have risen above 90%.
- According to CME FedWatch, market participants are pricing in a 90.6% chance that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at the current 3.75% to 4.00% range.
- By contrast, the implied probability of a rate change is 9.4%, and the figure is calculated based on federal funds futures prices.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
The probability that the Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Oct. 28 has climbed above 90%.
According to CME FedWatch data on October 27, market participants are pricing in a 90.6% chance that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at its monetary policy meeting the following day.
That indicates markets are largely expecting the Fed to stand pat. The implied probability of a rate change is 9.4%.
FedWatch rate probabilities are calculated based on federal funds futures prices and can change with market conditions.
JH Kim
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