Wall Street Watches US Midterms as Shift in Political Power Comes Into Focus
Summary
- Prediction markets were assigning a 73% probability to a scenario in which Democrats control both the Senate and the House.
- Standard Chartered said U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could rise if Republicans take both chambers.
- Barclays expects the financial market impact of the midterm election results to be limited, while Goldman Sachs highlighted artificial intelligence-related regulation as a key variable after the election.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, major Wall Street financial institutions are analyzing how the results could affect financial markets as prediction markets increasingly reflect a higher probability that Democrats will control both chambers of Congress.
Walter Bloomberg reported on November 2 that prediction markets were pricing a 73% chance of Democrats controlling both the Senate and the House, compared with 5.8% for a Republican sweep of both chambers. The figures are based on prediction-market trading and do not represent the actual election outcome.
Standard Chartered said U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could rise if Republicans win control of both chambers.
By contrast, Barclays expects the midterm election's impact on financial markets to be limited.
Goldman Sachs highlighted the possibility that regulation related to artificial intelligence could emerge as a key variable after the election.
JH Kim
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