Kalshi Prices 88% Odds That Hegseth Leaves as US Defense Secretary Before April 1
JH Kim
Summary
- Kalshi, a U.S. prediction market platform, showed an 88% chance that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will step down before April 1 next year.
- It also showed an 88% probability that Hegseth will leave office before April 1, 2027, up sharply from about 40% a month ago.
- The figure is based on trading by Kalshi participants and does not mean his resignation has been confirmed.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi is pricing in an 88% chance that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will leave office before April 1 next year, up sharply from about 40% a month ago.
As of Nov. 4, Kalshi showed an 88% probability that Hegseth will step down before April 1, 2027.
That is 48 percentage points higher than about 40% a month earlier.
The figure reflects odds derived from trading by Kalshi participants and does not mean Hegseth's resignation has been confirmed.
JH Kim
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