Vance, Who Opposed Iran War, Posts Pointed Message After Election, Signaling Split With Trump [Lee Sang-eun’s Washington Now]

Vice President JD Vance said the war with Iran was a factor in the Republicans’ midterm election defeat. He also called for delivering on America First policies and resetting the U.S. relationship with Israel, comments that laid bare differences with President Donald Trump.

Vance posted a lengthy message on X on Nov. 4 analyzing the causes of the election loss. In the post, he recounted how a data expert warned before the election that some 2024 supporters were returning to the Democratic Party. “Our base turned out,” he wrote. “But many voters who backed the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024 voted for Democratic candidates in 2026.”

He added that another polling expert told him the day before the election that Republicans were headed for a 13-percentage-point defeat to Democrats in party support. He wrote that he had already been pessimistic, but that even he was stunned by that figure.

Vance identified four factors that could win those voters back: ending the war, tackling living costs and inflation, delivering on America First, and redefining relations with Israel. “Those four issues are exactly why many voters backed Democrats,” he wrote.

He then squarely blamed the war. “We lost because of the war,” he wrote. “If you want to argue that this defeat was worth it, and that losing control of the Senate for the next six years was an acceptable price, go ahead. But we all know why we lost, and any honest discussion has to start there.”

Referring to an earlier case in which he urged a diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict, Vance wrote that “her political advice was sound,” referring to Rachel Campos-Duffy. The remark can be read as a sign he wants to move quickly toward a deal to avoid being pulled deeper into the Iran war. Vance had previously been reported to oppose entering the war when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed the need for strikes on Iran at the White House. During negotiations with Iran in June, he also pursued a deal even while effectively accepting most of Tehran’s main demands.

The X post also amounted to a de facto effort to draw a line with Trump. Asked by reporters about Vance’s post on Nov. 4, Trump said Vance was “largely right” that the war had pushed gasoline prices somewhat higher in the short term. Still, he added, “If I had to do it again, I would do exactly the same thing.” Trump said it was “the only answer” over the long term. “We cannot allow Iran to start a nuclear war,” he said.

Lee Sang-eun, Washington correspondent at Hankyung.com, selee@hankyung.com