Bitcoin Below 50-Week Average Warrants Caution; Break of $73,000 Could Open Drop to $68,000

Bitcoin warrants a cautious approach while it remains below its 50-week moving average, and a break of $73,000 could lead to a further decline to $68,000, according to an analysis from Wintermute.

The crypto market maker said in a market report on November 10 that Bitcoin has become sensitive again to macroeconomic trends and moves in U.S. stocks after rebounding to $81,000 last week and then surrendering all of those gains.

Bitcoin briefly fell to $73,500 over the weekend, testing the 200-day moving average near $73,000. Its weekly close also slipped below the 50-week moving average of about $75,500, ending a seven-week streak above that level.

A daily close below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average would put the next downside target at $68,000, Wintermute wrote. By contrast, the market could turn constructive again if Bitcoin regains and holds $80,000 and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds return to weekly net inflows.

Market flows have yet to show a clear improvement. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the largest since June. Until ETF money starts coming back, any rebound in Bitcoin should be viewed as position adjustment rather than fresh capital entering the market, according to Wintermute.

More than $1 billion in positions has recently been liquidated in the crypto derivatives market. Wintermute said the broad unwind in leveraged long positions was a limited positive because it could reduce forced selling pressure if prices fall further.

On the macro front, the firm identified the possibility of a U.S. interest-rate increase as a key overhang. U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in well above market expectations last week, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to about 77%. Wintermute added that if a correction in artificial intelligence-related stocks coincides with higher rates, both liquidity and risk appetite could weaken, creating a particularly unfavorable backdrop for digital assets.

It also maintained a cautious view on altcoins. In the latest pullback, some altcoins including Near (NEAR), Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Ethena (ENA) fell more sharply than Bitcoin. If the market weakens further, altcoins that posted larger gains during the earlier rebound could face heavier pressure, Wintermute said.