Glassnode Says Bitcoin Outflows Persist as Selling Pressure Builds, Limiting Rebound

Buying power in the Bitcoin market is weakening, while overhead supply that could cap a rebound is increasing, according to Glassnode. The on-chain analytics firm said stablecoin supply is shrinking and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to post outflows. It also found that about 65% of short-term holder supply is now underwater.

In a report posted on X on November 11, Glassnode said Bitcoin was trading below the $75,600 average cost basis for short-term holders. Capital needed to support further gains continues to leave the market, the firm wrote.

Liquidity indicators weakened at the same time. Stablecoin supply fell by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.6 billion over the past 20 trading sessions. On Coinbase, Bitcoin continued to trade at a discount to global prices, with the gap widening to its largest since February.

Loss pressure on short-term investors also intensified. Glassnode said only about 35% of Bitcoin held by short-term holders remained in profit. At the market peak in September, nearly all of that supply was in the black. The firm said sell-side supply stacked near $83,600 could limit a price recovery.

Still, some signs pointed to a buffer against further downside. Glassnode said most leveraged long positions around current price levels were liquidated during the recent decline. Accumulation has also resumed among large wallets holding 100 to 10,000 BTC. Bid depth was greater than ask depth as well, the report showed.

Large buy orders were clustered between $68,000 and $72,500. By contrast, liquidation supply was concentrated between $59,500 and $62,600, a range where volatility could rise if further losses trigger the unwinding of leveraged positions.

In the options market, trading aimed at hedging against a short-term decline increased. CoinGlass data showed open interest in Bitcoin options at about $33 billion, with calls accounting for 55.72% and puts 44.28%. Over the past 24 hours, however, puts made up 50.32% of trading volume, slightly exceeding calls.