Bitcoin Slides Below $69,000 as Anthropic IPO Seen Adding to Selling Pressure [Hwang Doo-hyun’s Web3+]

Anthropic targets share sale of as much as $64.4 billion

"Investors raising cash ahead of a blockbuster IPO"

Bitcoin also fell 20% before SpaceX's listing

Bitcoin fell below $69,000, with some analysts pointing to the planned initial public offering of artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a factor adding to selling pressure. The argument is that investors are selling cryptocurrencies to raise cash for the deal. Market participants have drawn comparisons with June, when Bitcoin fell about 20% over a month ahead of SpaceX's listing.

On Nov. 13, Bitcoin fell as low as $68,527 during the session on Binance's Tether market. It was recently trading around $68,920, down about 6.7% from a day earlier.

In the crypto industry, talk has grown that Anthropic's IPO is one reason Bitcoin's decline has deepened this month. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said Anthropic's IPO may be one factor behind the recent drop. Investors tend to raise capital ahead of large IPOs.

"$64.4 billion deal could divert crypto money"

Anthropic plans to raise as much as $64.4 billion through a Nasdaq listing expected on Nov. 19. The company plans to offer 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. At the top of that range, its valuation would reach about $1.4 trillion. That would make it another megadeal after SpaceX, which raised $75 billion in June.

About 20% of the offering will be allocated to retail investors. That would amount to about $12.9 billion at the top of the price range. Bitfinex highlighted that allocation structure in a Nov. 11 report, saying the investor base in crypto and the pool of buyers interested in Anthropic's IPO overlap and could end up competing for limited capital.

The same concern surfaced during the SpaceX listing. Adam Morgan, senior researcher at Lotech, said retail and institutional money was moving out of risk assets to secure SpaceX IPO allocations. The pressure does not disappear the moment trading begins. In other words, crypto and AI-related investments are competing for the same pool of capital.

Anthropic stock could also draw heavy buying after the listing. Index analytics firm Intropic estimated demand from index-tracking funds at about $19 billion. Other investors may also move early to secure shares in anticipation of fast inclusion in major indexes.

Karsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg, said Anthropic could face the same index-related flow dynamics in early trading that surrounded SpaceX.

Bitcoin sank during SpaceX run-up, then rebounded three months later

Crypto weakness was clear before SpaceX went public. Bitcoin fell about 20% from May 13, 30 days before the June 12 listing, dropping from about $79,300 to about $63,580. Ether fell about 26% over the same period, sliding from $2,258 to $1,666.

Three months later, both assets were trading above their listing-day levels. On Sept. 12, Bitcoin stood at $77,278, up about 22%, while Ether rose about 52% to $2,526. That suggests the weakness seen ahead of a blockbuster IPO can later reverse. Even so, Bitcoin fell further immediately after the SpaceX listing, touching $57,800 intraday. Ether also made a lower low at $1,512 on June 26.

Bitfinex said the more important phase in the SpaceX case was the fundraising period before listing day. Bitcoin had already fallen sharply before the investor roadshow began. From the start of the roadshow through the first week after the listing, the token mostly moved sideways.

Bitfinex added that Anthropic's IPO performance could be read as a market verdict on AI valuations and spill over to Bitcoin through the Nasdaq. If flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds do not turn positive, downside risk from a disappointing IPO may outweigh the upside from a successful one.

During the SpaceX listing, Iliya Otychenko, chief analyst at CEX.IO, said the trend in the weeks after the debut mattered more than the first trading day. For IPO profits to rotate back into crypto, the newly listed company's stock would need to hold steady and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs would need to ease.