"President of Korea to Step Down Within a Month"...Betting on Polymarket

A prediction market platform based on cryptocurrency, Polymarket, has seen a surge in bets that the President of Korea, Seok-Yeol Yoon, will resign within this month. Rumors of Yoon's resignation and impeachment have been spreading.

On the 4th, Polymarket saw 7 bets related to the rumors of Yoon's resignation and impeachment after the previous day's speculation. As of 8 a.m., about 320,000 dollars were bet on the question "Will President Yoon resign within the year?", with a 64% probability of resignation.

Earlier, over 300,000 dollars were bet on the question "Will President Yoon lift the impeachment order?" This continued until 4:27 a.m. on the 4th, before Yoon announced the lifting of the impeachment order at the presidential office in Yongsan, Seoul. There is also a question about whether Yoon will be impeached by the 6th, with 60,000 dollars bet and a 20% probability.

On this day, the price of cryptocurrency showed a stark contrast between the global market and the local market. Bitcoin saw a rapid decline of over 30% on Upbit, hitting as low as 79,000 dollars at one point. Conversely, in the global market, Bitcoin's price fell by only 2%. This discrepancy is attributed to the sudden increase in the won-dollar exchange rate along with the panic selling by local traders.

Polymarket, launched in 2020, is a betting site based on cryptocurrency. It operates on the Polygon network, allowing investors to profit from predictions on election results, cryptocurrency prices, public events, and global incidents. It trades USDC, a stablecoin, instead of legal tender.

Reporter: Rian Kim knra@hankyung.com