Two Hours Before Yoon's Impeachment Vote... Betting Site Probability Plummets from 78% to 22%

Cryptocurrency-based betting site 'Polymarket'

On the cryptocurrency-based betting platform 'Polymarket', the possibility of President Yoon Suk-yeol stepping down within the year dropped from 78% to 22% just two hours before the impeachment vote.

As of 3 PM on the 7th, according to Polymarket, the probability of President Yoon stepping down within the year was 22%. The previous day, Han Dong-hoon, leader of the People Power Party, shifted his stance by stating that "it is necessary for President Yoon to promptly suspend his duties," causing the probability of stepping down to surge to 78%. However, after President Yoon's public apology in the morning, the opposition to impeachment within the People Power Party strengthened, causing the probability in the betting market to plummet.

Currently, there is a betting amount of $2,425,241 (approximately 3.457 billion KRW) on the question of President Yoon stepping down within the year.

At 10 AM that day, President Yoon expressed in a public address, "I am very sorry for causing anxiety and inconvenience to the people during the process of declaring martial law," and stated, "I will not evade the legal and political responsibility related to this martial law declaration." He further mentioned, "I will leave the future stabilization measures, including my term, to our party," and "the future administration will be jointly managed by our party and the government."

With President Yoon's public apology and his intention to step back, it is known that even the minority within the People Power Party, including Representative Cho Kyung-tae, who had publicly expressed support for impeachment, have turned against it.

The National Assembly will hold a plenary session at 5 PM that day, first proceeding with the re-vote on the special prosecutor law for Kim Keon-hee, followed by the impeachment vote for President Yoon.

Reporter Noh Jeong-dong, Hankyung.com dong2@hankyung.com