"95% Chance of Yoon's Impeachment"... Surges in a Day on Betting Site

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

It was reported that the probability of President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment was calculated at 95% on a cryptocurrency-based betting site.
The funds invested in the impeachment bet exceeded $2.79 million (4 billion KRW).
Currently, this bet ranks as the fourth largest in investment size, following 'December U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision' and 'December Bitcoin final price'.

The market sees an overwhelmingly high possibility of President Yoon Suk-yeol being impeached within the year.

As of 2:30 PM on the 14th, according to the cryptocurrency market-based betting site Polymarket, the probability of President Yoon's impeachment this year was calculated at 95%. The probability, which was 89% at midnight the previous day, rose by 6 percentage points in just half a day.

The betting was conducted by placing cryptocurrency on 'Yes' or 'No' to the question 'Will President Yoon be impeached this year?' Regardless of whether the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment, if the National Assembly passes the impeachment bill, those who bet on impeachment will profit.

As of today, more than $2.79 million (4 billion KRW) has been gathered for this bet. It is currently the fourth largest in open bets, following 'December U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision', 'December Bitcoin final price', and 'Trump's U.S. cabinet nominations'.

Reporter Kim In-yeop inside@hankyung.com