How Different is the Ruling Party Now Compared to 8 Years Ago... '62 Votes Defected' in Park's Impeachment, What About Yoon? [Political Inside]

How many ruling party defection votes will determine the 'fate' of President Yoon Suk-yeol?

As the People Power Party has decided to participate in the second impeachment motion vote scheduled for 4 PM on the 14th, attention is focused on how many ruling party votes will support the impeachment. In the first impeachment vote on the 7th, all People Power Party members, except for Ahn Cheol-soo, Kim Ye-ji, and Kim Sang-wook, abstained from voting.

Unlike the first vote, where the ruling party responded with a 'boycott', participation in the impeachment vote is expected today. The People Power Party held a closed-door assembly from the morning to discuss participation in the vote and whether to adopt a party stance on the matter. It is reported that not only Representative Han Dong-hoon but also Kwon Seong-dong, the floor leader classified as a 'pro-Yoon (Yoon Suk-yeol) faction', suggested participating in the vote.

There is just one vote left to reach the quorum of 200, the 'approval threshold'. This is because 192 opposition lawmakers who proposed the impeachment and seven ruling party lawmakers, including Kim Sang-wook, Kim Ye-ji, Kim Jae-seop, Ahn Cheol-soo, Cho Kyung-tae, Jin Jong-oh, and Han Ji-ah, have publicly expressed their support for the impeachment.

However, compared to the impeachment vote of former President Park Geun-hye on December 9, 2016, eight years ago, the atmosphere within the ruling party is quite different.

At that time, there were 172 opposition lawmakers, 20 fewer than now. More than 28 defection votes from the Saenuri Party (the predecessor of the People Power Party) were needed. Objectively, it was a more challenging situation than now, but over 40 ruling party members had already expressed their support for the impeachment before the vote. It was as if they knew the 'voting result' before entering the vote.

In the case of President Yoon's impeachment, it is expected that there will be 'shy impeachment' votes within the party, but the number of ruling party lawmakers who have publicly expressed their support for the impeachment has not yet reached the quorum. It is a situation where the voting results must be watched with tension.

During the impeachment of former President Park, the Saenuri Party's floor leadership did not discuss a vote boycott, and many senior members within the party participated in the impeachment. In contrast, due to the 'impeachment trauma', senior lawmakers like Yoon Sang-hyun and Na Kyung-won are determined to prevent the impeachment this time, which is a difference.

In 2016, Lee Jung-hyun, the then-representative and former chief public relations officer of the Park Geun-hye administration, maintained his opposition to the impeachment but failed to persuade the party. The fact that the impeachment support exceeded the quorum with 234 votes in the plenary session is evidence of this. There were at least 62 defection votes from the 128 ruling party members.

Now, although Representative Han has turned in favor of the impeachment, the strong opposition from the pro-Yoon faction within the party has prevented a change in the party's stance. Even if the impeachment is approved with more than 200 votes today, it seems unlikely that nearly half of the ruling party members will defect as they did eight years ago.

Kim Bong-goo, Hankyung.com reporter kbk9@hankyung.com