Will Yoon be impeached... World's largest betting site predicts '80% probability'
Summary
- Polymarket announced that President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment probability is forecasted at 80%.
- The current betting amount has reached approximately 9.1 billion won, showing significant market interest.
- The Constitutional Court's decision is expected around mid-March, and market fluctuations are anticipated based on the result.
Polymarket records betting amount of 9.1 billion won on Yoon's impeachment
'President Yoon impeachment stock' priced at $0.80
On the 25th, the day of the final pleading for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial, Polymarket, the world's largest political prediction betting site, forecasted an 80% probability of President Yoon's impeachment.
According to Polymarket, as of 5:05 PM local time, 80% responded 'yes' in the betting market asking 'whether President Yoon will step down from presidency before April.' The current betting amount reaches $6,336,874 (approximately 9.1 billion won).
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where betting takes place on the likelihood of events across various fields including politics, economics, and sports. Previously, it accurately predicted the possibility of President Joe Biden's reelection withdrawal and correctly forecasted JD Vance as Donald Trump's running mate.
The stock price of $0.80 (80 cents) for 'President Yoon's impeachment approval' indicates that the market sees an 80% probability of impeachment.
Betting on President Yoon's impeachment opened right after the 'December 3rd Martial Law incident.' The price has fluctuated according to impeachment prospects, falling to 47% in late December, then rising again after Yoon's arrest to reach 86% on the 21st. Currently, it fluctuates between 74-86%.
If President Yoon resigns voluntarily or the Constitutional Court approves the impeachment, those who bet 'yes' will win, while 'no' bets win if the impeachment is dismissed or if Yoon completes his term.
Polymarket's betting system allows market participants to determine the probability of event occurrence, where participants can trade shares between $0-1 per share on whether specific events will occur. If the final result is correct, they receive $1, and if wrong, they lose their bet amount.
With the final pleading of President Yoon's impeachment trial conducted today, the Constitutional Court's decision is expected around mid-March.
In previous cases, former President Roh Moo-hyun's impeachment was dismissed 14 days after the final pleading, while former President Park Geun-hye's impeachment was approved after 11 days.
Yoo Ji-hee, Hankyung.com reporter keephee@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
