PiCK
Wall Street's Fate Hinges on US February Employment [New York Stock Market Weekly Outlook]
Summary
- The US February employment report release is the biggest issue for the New York stock market, with warnings that new hiring falling short of expectations could shock the stock market.
- Economic indicators such as federal government employee layoffs and manufacturing and services PMI are being closely watched for their impact on the job market.
- On the 7th, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a lecture on economic outlook, and statements from key Fed officials are also scheduled, drawing investors' attention.
US February Employment Report to be Released on the 7th (Local Time)
Stock Market Could Be Shocked if New Hiring Falls Short of Expectations
The biggest issue for the New York stock market this week (March 3-7) is the February employment report to be released on the 7th (local time). As recent economic indicators have been pointing to a continued slowdown trend, if non-farm payroll employment falls short of expectations or the unemployment rate rises, it could shock the stock market. It is also noteworthy how much the layoffs of federal government employees led by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will affect overall employment.
On the 3rd, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release the February Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). S&P Global's final February Manufacturing PMI is also scheduled to be released around the same time. Both are indicators that can gauge the US manufacturing business conditions.
The 4th is the effective date for the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods announced by US President Donald Trump. An additional 10% tariff will be added to Chinese goods.
On the 4th, attention will be on whether President Trump will address Congress. US House Speaker Mike Johnson invited President Trump in January, but he has not disclosed whether he accepted.
On the 5th, a series of reports will be released, starting with ADP's February National Employment Report, followed by S&P Global's final February Services PMI, and ISM's February Services PMI. After assessing the service sector conditions, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released. The Beige Book is a report that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pays close attention to.
On the 6th, the weekly initial jobless claims, US January trade balance, and fourth quarter labor productivity reports are scheduled.
On the 7th, Chairman Powell is scheduled to give a lecture at the University of Chicago on economic outlook. On the same day, comments from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler are also expected.
New York=Park Shin-young, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
