[Morning Briefing] The Day of Fate for President Yoon... Worst Day in Five Years for New York Stock Exchange Due to Tariff Shock

◆ The Day of Fate for President Yoon Suk-yeol

The Constitutional Court will deliver its verdict on the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk-yeol at 11 a.m. today. The political upheaval triggered by the December 3 martial law declaration last year is expected to conclude after 122 days. If six or more of the eight judges side with 'impeachment approval,' President Yoon will be immediately removed from office. Conversely, if three or more judges express 'impeachment dismissal or rejection,' President Yoon will be reinstated from suspension and return to office from the day of the verdict. Considering public interest, the Constitutional Court has decided to allow live broadcasting and public attendance at the verdict held at the Seoul Jaedong Constitutional Court's main courtroom. The police have issued the highest level of alert in Seoul today, anticipating potential clashes between opposing factions.

◆ Eight Judges to Decide President Yoon's Fate... President Yoon Will Not Attend Impeachment Trial Verdict

President Yoon's political fate lies in the hands of the eight Constitutional Court judges. After deliberating since December 14 last year when the impeachment trial was filed, the judges will deliver their final decision at 11 a.m. today, 111 days later. Although the constitutional number of judges is nine, the current judges are Moon Hyung-bae, Lee Mi-sun, Kim Hyung-doo, Jeong Jeong-mi, Jeong Hyung-sik, Kim Bok-hyung, Cho Han-chang, and Jeong Gye-seon, totaling eight. The candidate for judge Ma Eun-hyuk, elected by the National Assembly, was not appointed due to lack of bipartisan agreement. President Yoon will not attend the verdict held at the Constitutional Court's main courtroom. President Yoon's representatives stated, "The decision was made considering the overall situation of maintaining order and security concerns in a potentially congested environment."

◆ New York Stock Exchange Plummets Due to U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Shock... Worst Day in Five Years

The three major indices of the New York Stock Exchange plummeted on the 3rd (local time), the day after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% basic tariff and reciprocal tariffs. Concerns over inflation, economic recession, and a global trade war due to tariffs have heightened, freezing investor sentiment. At the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,545.93, down 1,679.39 points (-3.98%) from the previous session. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index plunged 274.45 points (-4.84%) to 5,396.52, and the Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 1,050.44 points (-5.97%) to close at 16,550.61. It was the worst day in five years since the early spread of COVID-19 in 2020. The Dow and S&P 500 indices recorded their largest daily declines since June 2020, and the Nasdaq index since March 2020.

◆ U.S. Finalizes South Korea's Tariff Rate at 25%... Administrative Order Appendix Revised from 26% to 25%

The Trump administration in the U.S. has finalized the reciprocal tariff rate imposed on South Korea at 25%. According to the appendix of the reciprocal tariff administrative order released on the White House website on the 3rd (local time), South Korea's reciprocal tariff rate was revised from '26%' to '25%' from the previous day. Previously, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced the reciprocal tariff rate in the Rose Garden of the White House the previous afternoon, the panel he held showed South Korea's reciprocal tariff rate as 25%, but the appendix of the administrative order released by the White House later stated 26%. The South Korean government initially notified the media that it was 25% as announced by President Trump and requested confirmation from the White House on the correct figure.

◆ Financial Sector's Overseas Real Estate Defaults Reach 2.64 Trillion

As of the end of September last year, the scale of overseas real estate projects with potential default risks among domestic financial companies' investments was identified as 2.64 trillion won. According to the Financial Supervisory Service, the balance of overseas real estate alternative investments by the financial sector was 55.8 trillion won as of the end of September last year, a decrease of 5 trillion won from the previous quarter. By financial sector, insurance companies had the largest investment balance at 30.4 trillion won (54.3%), followed by banks at 12 trillion won (21.5%), securities at 7.7 trillion won (13.8%), mutual finance at 3.6 trillion won (6.5%), credit finance at 2 trillion won (3.6%), and savings banks at 1 trillion won (0.2%). Among the 34.3 trillion won invested by financial companies in single projects (real estate), 2.64 trillion won (7.71%) had events of default (EOD).

◆ Many Clouds Nationwide and Large Temperature Differences... 'Bad' Fine Dust in the Capital Area

Friday the 4th is Cheongmyeong (淸明), a seasonal term indicating the sky gradually clearing, and many clouds are expected nationwide. The highest daytime temperature is forecasted to be between 12 and 18 degrees. The temperature difference between day and night in inland areas nationwide is expected to be around 15 degrees. Frost is expected in the eastern Gyeonggi, inland and mountainous areas of Gangwon, Chungcheong, and inland Gyeongbuk until the morning. In inland Chungcheong, there will be places with less than 0.1 mm of raindrops until the morning. The fine dust concentration is expected to be 'bad' in Seoul, Incheon, southern Gyeonggi, and Chungnam, and 'good' to 'moderate' in other areas.

Jung Min Oh, Hankyung.com Reporter blooming@hankyung.com