Did Trump shoot himself in the foot?…"The biggest victim of the tariff bomb is the US"

JETRO, Tariff Impact Analysis

US GDP expected to decrease by 5.2% in 2027

There is a claim that the country most affected by US President Donald Trump's tariff policy is none other than the United States itself. While the impact on South Korea and Japan is not significant, the automotive industry is expected to be inevitably affected.

The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) released an analysis on the 22nd, examining the impact of the reciprocal tariff measures by the Trump administration earlier this month on 170 countries worldwide.

According to JETRO, tariffs are found to have the most negative impact on the United States. It is projected that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decrease by 5.2% in 2027. The automotive industry is also expected to decline by 9%.

The next most affected country is China, with its GDP expected to decrease by 1.9% in 2027.

JETRO analyzed that for other countries like South Korea and Japan, the high tariffs on China could have a positive impact due to trade diversion effects, as China's exports to the US decrease.

It is projected that South Korea's GDP will decrease by 0.1% and Japan's by 0.2% in 2027. The European Union (EU) is expected to decrease by 0.3%.

However, the impact on the automotive industry exceeds the GDP decline. South Korea is expected to decrease by 2.9% and Japan by 1.7%. Canada is expected to benefit from the tariff policies on South Korea and Japan, increasing by 7.1%.

JETRO stated, "Although it seems that new tariffs imposed by the US may cause disadvantages, as shown in this analysis, the economic impact is more complex."

Kim Dae-young, Hankyung.com reporter kdy@hankyung.com