[Analysis] K33 Research "Holding Cryptocurrencies in May is More Advantageous"

Despite the old market adage "sell in May and walk away," an analysis suggests that holding cryptocurrencies in May this year will be more advantageous.

According to The Block on the 7th (local time), K33 Research stated in a report that "statistically, fewer upward catalysts, vacation season, and tax filings have influenced the asset market's weakness in May," but "this summer will be different. The 'hold in May and stay' strategy will be advantageous."

It particularly noted the bullish cryptocurrency market driven by Trump. The report stated, "The current market's main strategy is the 'Trump Trade.' His actions are significantly impacting the market," and "his pro-cryptocurrency policies are expected to trigger a market uptrend." Since President Trump's signing of the strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order in March, the direction of specific policies may gradually be presented. Additionally, it mentioned the possibility of announcing a plan to secure additional Bitcoin without increasing the U.S. government's budget.

It also evaluated that Trump's tariffs, which negatively impact the stock market, are a boon for the cryptocurrency market. K33 Research analyzed, "During the downturn in April, Bitcoin showed strength compared to stocks. The correlation with stocks has weakened, and Bitcoin's fundamentals have strengthened," adding, "This could act as a boon (for capital inflow) for Bitcoin." It further explained, "Tariff fears are likely to reappear during the summer," and "the downside risk in the stock market due to this will trigger Bitcoin's relative strength."

Currently, the U.S. stock market is heavily exposed to tariff uncertainties, but the cryptocurrency market may show a relatively strong trend thanks to Trump's favorable policy environment.

Finally, it emphasized, "The premium in the Bitcoin derivatives market remains weak, and the funding rate is also maintaining a negative," suggesting "the risk of Bitcoin further declining due to large-scale long liquidations seems low."

Meanwhile, according to analyst Eric Crown, Bitcoin has recorded a decline after May in only 7 out of the last 14 times, which is just a 50% probability. However, the media evaluated that "the reason the adage 'sell in May and walk away' has been prevalent is that 4 out of those declines occurred in the past 4 years."