Who will be the 21st president... National Election Commission says "Results expected around midnight on Election Day"

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

The National Election Commission predicted that the outcome of the 21st presidential election will become apparent around midnight on the 3rd, Election Day.
The exit poll from the three broadcasters will be released at around 8:10 PM, and eight out of nine previous exit polls have correctly predicted the actual winner.
It was also indicated that if Lee Jae-myung’s 'leading' position in pre-announcement opinion polls continues, the identity of the winner may emerge before midnight.

Main Voting Until 8 PM on the 3rd

The outline of the president-elect for the 21st presidential election is expected to be revealed around midnight on Election Day, the 3rd.

According to the National Election Commission, this presidential election, which is being held as a by-election, will have its main voting from 6 AM to 8 PM on the 3rd. Voting will take place at 14,259 polling stations nationwide.

Ordinary presidential elections are usually held from 6 AM to 6 PM. Counting of votes will begin after voting ends, starting at 8 PM.

The exit poll results from the three broadcasters—MBC, KBS, and SBS—are scheduled to be announced at around 8:10 PM, right after voting ends.

The exit poll will target approximately 100,000 voters who have finished voting at 325 polling stations nationwide on Election Day. In past presidential elections, a total of nine exit polls have been conducted, and eight of them successfully predicted the actual winner.

Depending on the voter turnout or the margin of votes between candidates, the timing at which the outcome of the presidential election becomes clear may differ.

In the 19th presidential election, which was also held as a by-election after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, it took just two hours after vote counting started for Moon to be deemed the 'likely winner' at 10 PM. At that time, Moon gave his victory speech at Gwanghwamun Square at around 11:40 PM on Election Day.

However, in the 20th presidential election, where Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly defeated Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung by just 0.73 percentage points (p), Yoon was declared 'likely winner' around 2 AM the following day, some eight hours after counting began.

If the 'leadership' of Democratic Party of Korea candidate Lee Jae-myung, shown in multiple opinion polls right up to the pre-announcement blackout, holds through, there is a possibility the winner will become evident before midnight.

Eunji Cha, Hankyung.com reporter chachacha@hankyung.com