Sluggish Nexon 'Maple Coin'...Is a rebound possible in the second half of the year?

'Nexon Coin' Nexpace (NXPC)

Listed consecutively on Binance, etc.

Dropped to the low $1 range

The success of MapleStory N is the key growth driver

The price of Nexpace (NXPC), a virtual asset ambitiously released by the South Korean game company Nexon, has fallen to the low $1 range. Analysts widely agree that for the Nexpace price to make a genuine rebound, Nexon's blockchain game "MapleStory N" must prove its performance. It is also pointed out that blockchain games must still overcome numerous hurdles, such as regulatory risks and improving public perception.

According to CoinMarketCap, a virtual asset market tracking site, as of the afternoon of the 2nd, Nexpace is trading at around $1.3, down about 2% from the previous day. Previously, on the 15th of last month, Nexpace was consecutively listed on major Korean virtual asset exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb. On the same day, Binance, the world’s largest virtual asset exchange, also listed Nexpace, capturing significant attention. That's because Nexpace was the first virtual asset developed by a Korean game company to be listed on Binance immediately after its launch.

The problem is that Nexpace, except for right after its listing, has hardly found any upward momentum. Nexpace’s price briefly surpassed $3.8 during the trading session on the day it was listed on major exchanges like Binance, but it has since steadily declined and settled in the low $1 range. This contrasts with the recent overall strong performance across the virtual asset market, exemplified by Bitcoin (BTC) hitting an all-time high of $110,000 last month for the first time in history, setting a record in about four months.

Nexon’s First Blockchain Game

The market believes that Nexpace’s disappointing price is not unrelated to the gameplay quality of MapleStory N. MapleStory N, based on Nexpace, is Nexon’s first blockchain game. After beta testing last year, Nexpace was officially launched and listed on key exchanges last month, but the industry still says much remains to be desired. Above all, it is pointed out that users’ returns on investment (ROI) have not met expectations.

Initially, Nexon’s goal was for MapleStory N to act as a platform for a circular economy connecting reality and the game world. The plan was to provide rewards such as non-fungible tokens (NFTs) proportional to in-game contributions, enabling users to cash out those rewards by exchanging them for Nexpace through a 'P2E (Play-to-Earn)' platform. This is also why Nexon named its blockchain game ecosystem, including Nexpace and MapleStory N, the "Universe."

As it fully utilized the intellectual property (IP) of the existing MapleStory, which boasts a strong fandom, expectations were high. The fact that Nexpace was listed on Binance immediately after its launch was also due to this. INF Crypto Lab, a domestic Web3 consulting firm, stated, "The strong recognition of the MapleStory brand served as a natural catalyst for significant interest in Nexpace in the market," adding, "(MapleStory N) triggered nostalgia among key Korean opinion leaders (KOLs), resulting in high participation not only during testing but also after its official release."

Nexon "Urgent Algorithm Adjustment"

However, it is widely considered virtually impossible to actually "make a living off the game," the so-called 'rice-farming' aspect of P2E games. Rice-farming is industry slang meaning to earn a living by playing games. According to industry sources, the amount an average MapleStory N user can earn per hour is less than ₩1,000 when converted to Korean won—less than one-tenth the minimum hourly wage of ₩10,030 for this year. To significantly increase the reward rate, users must raise their in-game character levels, which means further investment is required. This implies an imbalance between input (effort) and output (reward).

Nexon is not unaware of these issues. Recently, Nexon began working to improve the MapleStory N algorithm. As early as this month, a system called "Reactor," which will adjust asset values in MapleStory N, will also be launched. Sun-Young Hwang, CEO of Nexpace, said, "We confirmed that unexpectedly high participation from users caused more volatility than anticipated, preventing returns from functioning as intended," adding, "We are urgently adjusting the algorithm for the supply of game items and Neso (NESO·game token) as well as level-up costs, and will quickly implement these changes in the game."

For MapleStory N to succeed, it must overcome more than just return rates. Improving perception and resolving regulatory risks are major hurdles. In particular, there is still strong aversion among "heavy gamers," who play a key role in building the game ecosystem, towards blockchain games. According to a 2023 survey at the Game Developers Conference (GDC) of about 2,300 game developers, 75% of respondents answered they had no interest in blockchain technology.

The fact that P2E games are banned in Korea for gambling concerns is another challenge. An industry source stated, "Web3 games require technical understanding of blockchain—for tasks such as creating wallets and exchanging tokens—so the initial barrier to entry is high," adding, "Without drastic improvements in user experience (UX), it will be difficult to expand the user base."

"Possibility of Surpassing $7 Within the Year"

However, if the improved algorithm is fully applied to the game, some believe there’s a strong possibility for a short-term rebound in Nexpace’s price. Crypto prediction platform Telegaon forecasts Nexpace may surge to $7.46 this year and up to $13.42 next year. On CryptoPrediction, a digital asset price prediction site, the year-end Nexpace price forecast was in the $4.2 range.

The outlook for the blockchain game industry is also positive. According to global market research firm Market Research Future (MRFR), the global blockchain game market is projected to grow nearly sixteenfold from $3.87 billion this year to $62.19 billion in 2034. The average annual growth rate from this year to 2034 is expected to reach approximately 36.1%.

Web3 consulting company Tiger Research suggested, "Despite the initial sluggishness, Web3 games continue to gain attention due to robust synergy with the game industry," adding, "For the market to grow steadily, it is crucial to first resolve three core challenges: establishing a stable ecosystem, designing a rational token economy, and securing high-quality gameplay."