Lee Jae-myung, Overwhelming No.1 Among Those in Their 20s to 50s…Kim Moon-soo Leads Only Among Those 60 and Older [Exit Polls by Three Broadcasters]

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

According to the exit polls by the three terrestrial broadcasters, Lee Jae-myung demonstrated overwhelming dominance among voters in their 20s to 50s with a vote share of 51.7%.
Kim Moon-soo was ahead only among those aged 60 and above, with a pronounced gap by age group noted between the two candidates.
If the exit poll results match the real vote, there is a high likelihood of Lee Jae-myung’s victory.

Lee Jun-seok at 24.3% Among Those in Their 20s and Younger

In the exit poll for the 21st presidential election conducted on the 3rd by the three terrestrial broadcasters, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, was predicted to secure 51.7% of the votes.

It was predicted that Lee Jae-myung would outpace Kim Moon-soo, the People Power Party candidate, by a double-digit margin. If the exit poll percentages translate to the actual vote, Lee Jae-myung is likely to win the election.

According to the exit poll for the 21st presidential election jointly conducted by the three terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC, and SBS) and the Korea Broadcasters Association, the results were: △Lee Jae-myung 51.7% △Kim Moon-soo 39.3% △Lee Jun-seok 7.7%.

By age group, Lee Jae-myung led Kim Moon-soo by a wide margin across all age groups from 20s to 50s. Lee Jae-myung recorded 41.3% and 47.6% for voters in their 20s (ages 18–29) and 30s, respectively. In their 40s and 50s, he recorded a dominant 72.7% and 69.8%.

On the other hand, among voters in their 60s, Kim Moon-soo was expected to lead with 48.9%, ahead of Lee Jae-myung at 48.0%. Among those aged 70 and above, Kim Moon-soo was also projected to lead with 64.0% compared to Lee Jae-myung's 34.0%.

Regardless of gender, most voters overall preferred Lee Jae-myung. Looking at detailed predictions by age and gender, in men in their 20s: Lee Jae-myung 24.0%, Kim Moon-soo 36.9%, Lee Jun-seok 37.2%. For women in their 20s: Lee Jae-myung 58.1%, Kim Moon-soo 25.3%, Lee Jun-seok 10.3%. Among men in their 30s: Lee Jae-myung 37.9%, Kim Moon-soo 34.5%, Lee Jun-seok 25.8%. For women in their 30s: Lee Jae-myung 57.3%, Kim Moon-soo 31.2%, Lee Jun-seok 9.3%.

Among men in their 40s: Lee Jae-myung 72.8%, Kim Moon-soo 21.0%, Lee Jun-seok 5.3%. Among women in their 40s: Lee Jae-myung 72.6%, Kim Moon-soo 23.4%, Lee Jun-seok 3.0%. For men in their 50s: Lee Jae-myung 71.5%, Kim Moon-soo 24.2%, Lee Jun-seok 3.2%. For women in their 50s: Lee Jae-myung 68.1%, Kim Moon-soo 27.6%, Lee Jun-seok 3.3%.

Among men in their 60s: Lee Jae-myung 48.6%, Kim Moon-soo 47.7%, Lee Jun-seok 2.7%. For women in their 60s: Lee Jae-myung 47.5%, Kim Moon-soo 50.0%, Lee Jun-seok 1.9%. Among men aged 70 and above: Lee Jae-myung 31.3%, Kim Moon-soo 65.8%, Lee Jun-seok 2.1%. Among women aged 70 and above: Lee Jae-myung 36.2%, Kim Moon-soo 62.6%, Lee Jun-seok 1.0%.

The exit poll for the 21st presidential election by the three terrestrial broadcasters was conducted at 325 polling stations nationwide, targeting 80,146 voters. A systematic sampling method was used, surveying every fifth voter as they left the polling station. The poll’s margin of error is ±0.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com Reporter greaterfool@hankyung.com