Unpredictable Trump Tariff Policy... Altcoin Prices Swing Wildly

Minseung Kang

Summary

It was reported that uncertainty about the tariff policy of the Trump administration in the U.S. has increased volatility in the altcoin market.
After Bitcoin reached a record high, the altcoin market is at a strategic turning point, with investor sentiment shifting toward the sidelines.
In summer, due to major policy events, unusual volatility may occur, so investors are advised to prepare for both upward and downward paths.

Ethereum·Solana·XRP

Retracement and Rebound Turning Point After Gains

Unusual Volatility Could Occur in Summer

Uncertainty surrounding tariff policies by the Trump administration in the U.S. is causing turbulence in the altcoin (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) market. As Bitcoin enters a correction after hitting a record high, some analysts say the altcoin market is at a strategic turning point between retracement and rebound.

According to domestic cryptocurrency exchange Upbit on the 4th, Ethereum is trading at around ₩3,680,000, up about 65% since its April low. During the same period, Solana saw just a 44% increase and XRP only 14%.

On the 29th of last month, the cryptocurrency media outlet CoinDesk analyzed, "Solana, which has been regarded as a challenger to Ethereum, has shown technical signals marking the end of its 18-month rally," and "Ethereum is increasingly likely to enter a period of relative strength, while XRP (formerly Ripple) is ending its rebound and coming under renewed downward pressure."

Some also analyze that right after leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin reached a new high, investor sentiment has shifted back towards a wait-and-see approach. On-chain data platform Santiment stated in a recent research report, "A day after Bitcoin set an all-time high at $111,980, the rally sentiment was rapidly dampened by President Trump's tariff remarks," adding, "Due to unpredictable trade and tariff risks, many traders are shifting their strategies toward observation."

Cryptocurrency strategist Michaël van de Poppe diagnosed on his YouTube channel, "The current altcoin market has entered a 'stealth phase' where the perception that markets will decline again is spreading." He added, "In past cycles—early 2020, September 2019, summer 2016—Ethereum showed strong surges after bottoming out against Bitcoin, and now is likely a similar period. If Bitcoin continues with a gentle rise rather than a sharp surge, market conditions may allow altcoins to outperform Bitcoin returns."

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen also forecasted, "If Bitcoin fails to surpass previous highs through the summer and faces downward pressure in August–September, Ethereum is also likely to retest its lows." He added, "Currently, the altcoin index relative to Ethereum is also near a cycle high," and, "As in the past, as funds disperse, altcoins could show declines." He further advised, "Investors need to prepare for both upside and downside scenarios."

There is also analysis that this summer's market could see unusual volatility. Cryptocurrency data analytics firm Kaiko projected in a recent research report, "Although summer is traditionally a quiet time for markets, major policy events this year may usher in unusual market volatility." The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. central bank (Federal Reserve) is scheduled right before the tariff implementation announced by President Trump, on the 9th of next month. The U.S. Congress is also likely to handle legislation related to stablecoins before the August recess.

Kang Minseung, Bloomingbit reporter