Probability of Passage of U.S. ‘Stablecoin Bill’ This Year at 89% on Polymarket

Heecheol Yang

Summary

Polymarket stated that the probability of the stablecoin regulation bill being enacted in the U.S. this year is 89%.
The final passage of the bill could vary depending on discussions in the House and any proposed amendments.
The media reported that cryptocurrency investors are highly interested in whether the bill will be passed.

The cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket has forecast that the stablecoin regulation bill (GENIUS Act) is highly likely to be enacted by the end of this year.

According to Cointelegraph on the 20th (local time), Polymarket announced that the probability of the GENIUS Act passing both the U.S. Senate and House and receiving the President’s signature is calculated at 89%.

It is still uncertain whether the bill will pass the House in its original form. Some lawmakers may propose additional amendments, reflecting concerns over former President Donald Trump’s ties to the cryptocurrency industry—especially World Liberty Financial’s stablecoin USD1. In fact, in the Senate, the bill eventually passed after a similar amendment was rejected.

Since the Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House, a vote in the plenary session is likely to occur soon. Former President Donald Trump has stated that if the House passes the bill swiftly, he will “sign it immediately without any additional provisions.”

Meanwhile, this betting market opened about 18 hours after the bill passed the Senate on the 11th by a vote of 68 in favor and 30 against. The media noted that "cryptocurrency investors are paying close attention to the outcome."