"Circle, Corporate Value at $55 Billion... Limited Upside in Current Model"

Jon Ma, founder of the virtual asset institutional data platform Artemis, evaluated the corporate value of Circle, the issuer of the stablecoin USD Coin (USDC), at $55 billion and diagnosed that "it is difficult to expect substantial upside under the current model."

On the 19th (local time), founder Ma stated on his X that "based on 2025 estimates, Circle is valued at 58.1x of total profit, 125.2x EBITDA, and 163.7x net profit," revealing this view.

He also supplemented the outlook by adding the Circle Payments Network (CPN) as a new revenue line. The scenario assumes that, by 2029, B2B payment volume will exceed $570 billion, with 20% processed through CPN. Applying a 0.1% fee rate, it is analyzed that CPN alone could generate significant revenue.

Ma also shared his outlook on the stablecoin market. He predicted, "the supply of stablecoins will grow at an annual average rate of 30% to reach $1.2 trillion in 2029," and "USDC's market share will rise to 28.5% with its supply expanding to $370 billion."

In addition, Ma forecast that Circle's revenue will reach $9 billion by 2029, maintaining an average annual growth rate of 25%. He noted, "the gross margin will be 35%, gross profit at $3.1 billion (annual growth of 26%), and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) at $2.4 billion (annual growth of 32%)," adding, "however, even with optimistic application of all figures, the additional upside within the current model is limited."