Moon 52 days·Yoon 11 days… When will Lee and Trump hold their first South Korea–U.S. summit?

Expected in June but canceled due to diplomatic variables

Rising need for trade negotiations and economic cooperation

Uncertainty grows amid tense Middle East developments

There is growing attention on when President Lee Jae-myung and U.S. President Donald Trump will hold their first South Korea–U.S. summit.

Initially, it was expected that the two leaders would have their first meeting this month on the sidelines of a key multilateral diplomatic event, but various diplomatic factors led to its cancellation.

At the G7 Summit held in Canada, President Trump cut his schedule short and returned home early due to the Middle East crisis. For the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit being held in the Netherlands this week, President Lee decided not to attend.

As the period of multilateral meetings immediately following the inauguration passes, the government is expected to begin preparing in earnest for President Lee’s visit to the United States for a summit, in line with the precedent of newly inaugurated presidents swiftly visiting the U.S.

With ongoing South Korea–U.S. trade negotiations and economic cooperation in areas such as energy and shipbuilding, as well as the U.S. process of formulating North Korea policy, it has become increasingly important for South Korea to express its stance at the summit level.

Given President Trump’s tendency for personal 'rapport' influencing policy decisions, there is also a growing need for President Lee to quickly forge a relationship with President Trump.

During their first phone call on the 6th, the two leaders agreed to meet at the earliest opportunity, whether at a multilateral event or through a bilateral visit, for deeper discussions to advance the South Korea–U.S. alliance.

However, there is speculation that it will be difficult for President Lee to visit the U.S. before the current South Korea–U.S. trade negotiation deadline of 'July 8.' A summit involving an official state visit requires substantial preparation in advance, and mounting uncertainty due to increasingly tense Middle East developments has only complicated matters.

So as not to delay coordination between the two leaders too long, the government is reportedly aiming to hold the summit in the U.S. by August at the latest.

If circumstances at home and abroad prevent the summit from taking place by August, it is possible that the first meeting will occur at a major international event, such as the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Gyeongju at the end of October. President Lee is expected to attend the September UN General Assembly, especially as South Korea is a non-permanent member of the Security Council.

In the past, former President Park Geun-hye held a summit with the United States 72 days after her inauguration, while former President Moon Jae-in made a visit to the U.S. for a summit 52 days after his inauguration. Former President Yoon Suk-yeol had a South Korea–U.S. summit just 11 days after taking office. At that time, President Joe Biden visited South Korea, and the fact that the U.S. President chose to visit South Korea before Japan during his East Asia tour drew much attention. The realization of the first summit for a new administration via the U.S. President’s visit to South Korea was the first occurrence in 29 years, since President Kim Young-sam.

Shin Hyun-bo, Hankyung.com reporter greaterfool@hankyung.com