Trump and Netanyahu subdue Iran by force... Khamenei faces looming downfall

Middle East conflict ends in 12 days... Mixed fortunes for the three leaders

Trump intervened almost single-handedly

Achieved results despite MAGA opposition

Netanyahu attacks weakened Iran

Turned public opinion by involving the United States in war

Khamenei unable to overcome military gap

Succumbs to the United States and Israel... Position weakened

Political landscape in Iran expected to shift

Donald Trump, President of the United States, made a bold gamble by suddenly entering the war between Israel and Iran, and at least for now, it has paid off. By deploying bunker busters and destroying a significant portion of Iran’s nuclear facilities, he succeeded in forcing Iran to submit. Iran’s retaliation was minimal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, capitalizing on Trump's support, achieved near victory against archrival Iran. Meanwhile, Iran appeared to be a 'paper tiger,' and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces an unprecedented crisis.

◇ Trump demonstrates 'peace through strength'

On the 23rd (local time), President Trump announced a ceasefire agreement via social media, posting several images conveying the message of 'peace through strength.' He added, "Israel and Iran came to me almost at the same time and said, 'Peace!'" and "I knew now was the right time (to call a ceasefire)." He went on, "The true winners are the world and the Middle East."

President Trump’s decision to intervene remains controversial in both justification and process. He never clearly revealed on what intelligence he based his decision. Given his mistrust of the heads of the Department of Defense and intelligence agencies, it was essentially a war intervention based solely on his own judgment. Not only did he bypass discussions with Congress, he barely even notified them—which has triggered impeachment calls from lawmakers. Even among his MAGA (Make America Great Again) base, there was strong opposition to the intervention.

Nevertheless, the sudden deployment of bunker busters against Iran, after five failed rounds of nuclear negotiations, created a breakthrough. Achieving victory with just 14 bunker busters and 20 Tomahawk missiles, without ground operations that typically entail U.S. casualties, made this conflict a 'cost-effective war.' For the Trump administration, which had struggled to show significant progress on issues like trade negotiations, the Ukraine war, and Gaza war, this demonstrated the reality of 'peace through strength' and provided a chance to boost approval ratings.

◇ Netanyahu engineers political turnaround

Netanyahu is also considered a 'winner' in this war. Following a preemptive attack on a weakened Iran, he brought President Trump into the conflict. Arguing that bunker busters were essential and pushing for a shorter deadline than the 'two weeks' granted by President Trump to Iran, he communicated with J.D. Vance, the U.S. Vice President, and others to urge speedy action. He also threatened to carry out attacks without U.S. support, putting pressure on Trump. After the operation succeeded, he released a prerecorded video praising the 'bold decision that would change history.'

Facing ongoing trials for various alleged misconduct, Netanyahu achieved a dramatic political comeback through this event. With rising public support, prospects for another term as Prime Minister have emerged. The New York Times (NYT) reported that "Trump’s attack on Iran cemented Netanyahu’s political comeback," and the Israeli and U.S. military action is "perceived as Netanyahu’s victory by the Israeli public." The NYT added, "For many Israelis, this success has revived Netanyahu’s reputation as a 'guardian of security,' increased his chances of reelection, and depending on the coming weeks, could further solidify his historical legacy."

Even Yair Lapid, leader of Yesh Atid, Israel’s main opposition party and a political rival of Netanyahu, said, "There is nothing wrong with Netanyahu enjoying this moment," emphasizing that "this is a success for Netanyahu, a success for Trump, and a success for the free world."

◇ Khamenei loses political base

On the other hand, Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, finds his political standing diminished. Despite holding power above the elected president, he failed to respond effectively to Israel’s counterattack following the Hamas assault on Israel in October 2023, suffering a series of defeats.

Hamas’ top leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, and Khamenei was unable to prevent the decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah. On the 13th, an Israeli airstrike killed top commanders in their bedrooms. On the 21st, even after the United States bombed Fordow and other sites, Iran’s response was limited to missile attacks.

Observers say Iran’s outdated weapons and inferior intelligence capabilities failed to overcome years of economic sanctions. While Iran claims to have moved enriched uranium to other locations, it is unclear whether it will actually pursue nuclear development.

At 86, Khamenei is reportedly preparing for death or assassination by naming three possible successors. For the time being, few experts expect Iran’s theocratic regime to be overturned. However, with the Supreme Leader’s authority weakened after the recent Israel war, and should Khamenei become unable to rule, changes to Iran’s political landscape are anticipated. Analysts say more influence may shift to so-called 'reformists' like President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Washington, D.C.—Sangeun Lee, Correspondent/ Juwan Kim, Reporter selee@hankyung.com