Iran succumbed to US 'regime change' pressure, but… "Final end to hostilities remains uncertain"

Trump declares 'ceasefire', but missile exchanges between Israel and Iran continue

'Unstable ceasefire' keeps the spark of war alive

Israel: "Iran violated ceasefire agreement"

Israeli missile strikes hit Iranian radar facilities

Trump sternly warns: "Israel, don't launch bombs; both sides violate ceasefire agreement"

Iran: "There will be no suspension of nuclear activities"

Just a day after US President Donald Trump pressured for a 'regime change' in Iran, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. This comes just two days after the United States used bunker busters to bomb three Iranian nuclear facilities. Analysts say Iran gave in to 'American might.' However, with Iran stating unequivocally that "there will be no suspension of nuclear activities," prospects for a permanent end to the conflict seem bleak.

◇ Official ceasefire began on the 25th

According to the ceasefire proposal announced by President Trump on the 23rd (local time), Iran would first halt attacks at midnight on the 24th US Eastern Time (1pm KST), with Israel suspending airstrikes 12 hours later, at noon on the 24th, and the war considered over after another 12 hours. Both sides are expected to start the ceasefire at around 1pm KST on the 25th.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Iran" and warned of a strong response to any violation of the agreement. Iranian state media also reported that a ceasefire had begun after last-minute Israeli air raids.

The prevailing view is that Iran, even after its key nuclear weapons facilities were attacked, yielded to the intense pressure from the US and Israel. President Trump, from the onset of this Israel-Iran clash, stated, "We don't want just a truce—we want the 'real end' with Iran giving up its nuclear ambitions entirely." The day before the ceasefire announcement, he even raised the possibility of regime change in Iran.

◇ Overt threat of regime change

Such threats from the US and Israel reportedly made the Iranian leadership acutely aware that their regime's survival was at stake. Iran’s military strength has also greatly diminished, with Israel neutralizing much of its capabilities over 12 days of attacks.

Domestic conditions in Iran also influenced the ceasefire decision. At the onset of the conflict, the Iranian public supported the government in the name of 'defending the homeland.' However, repeated air raids in Tehran and elsewhere, and hundreds of civilian casualties, fueled growing complaints and anxiety toward the regime. The possibility of mounting public resentment in a prolonged war became a significant burden for Iran's leaders. International pressure and the threat of diplomatic isolation also played a role. Even Russia and China, normally Iranian allies, did not explicitly side with Iran this time.

◇ An uneasy ceasefire

A permanent end to hostilities between Israel and Iran is still uncertain. On this day, Israel claimed that Iran broke the ceasefire and launched missiles, leading to Israeli strikes on radar facilities, which Iran denied. In response, President Trump criticized both Israel and Iran for violating the ceasefire. He wrote on his social media, Truth Social: "Israel, do not drop bombs. If you do, it's a serious violation. Bring your pilots back." CNN reported, "Trump was furious as the ceasefire he brokered between Israel and Iran grew increasingly unstable."

According to US online media Axios, President Trump personally called Prime Minister Netanyahu asking him not to attack Iran. Netanyahu replied that Israel's retaliation was due to Iran's violation of the ceasefire, but added the scale of the attack would be significantly reduced. Afterwards, President Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Israel will not attack Iran. The ceasefire remains in effect."

Meanwhile, Iran hinted at resuming its nuclear activities. Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), announced, in light of the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, that necessary measures would be taken so nuclear activities would not be halted. Some experts speculated that Iran may have moved enriched uranium to other sites ahead of the US airstrikes.

Written by Juwan Kim / Donghyun Kim kjwan@hankyung.com