New York Stock Market… U.S. Employment Figures Likely a 'Barometer' for Rate Cuts

This week, the New York stock market is expected to be influenced mainly by the expiration of the United States’ mutual tariff exemption period, which concludes on July 9 next month. With the closure and early closing in observance of U.S. Independence Day (July 4), attention is focused on whether the stock market, which recently hit record highs, will continue its strong trend.

Karoline Leavitt, a White House spokesperson, hinted at a possible extension of the tariff exemption during a briefing on the 26th, saying, “(The mutual tariff exemption) could possibly be extended.” However, some concerns have arisen that volatility could increase depending on President Donald Trump’s remarks. Goldman Sachs analyst Andrea Ferrario analyzed, “The July tariff deadline and other factors will serve as major catalysts for volatility.”

One of the key economic indicators will be the release of the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on July 1. The PMI is a leading indicator that provides a key outlook on the economy. In addition, employment figures for June—including the Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—are scheduled to be released on July 3. According to FactSet, Wall Street economists predict June nonfarm payrolls will increase by 115,000, a decrease compared to the previous figure of 139,000. In the current environment of stable inflation data, if the labor market indicators show signs of slowing, expectations for a rate cut from the Fed could strengthen. This week, the stock exchange will be closed in observance of U.S. Independence Day and will close three hours early at about 1 p.m. on the previous day, July 3.

Donghyun Kim, 3code@hankyung.com