Trump's 'Big and Beautiful Bill' Passes Senate, Faces Turmoil in House [Washington Now by Sang-eun Lee]

President Donald Trump's long-cherished 'One Big and Beautiful Bill (OBBBA)' has narrowly passed the U.S. Senate after much turmoil. Now, the bill moves to the House of Representatives, where more turmoil is anticipated.

The Senate and House must pass identical versions of the bill. Since the version passed by the House was heavily amended in the Senate, the bill must be put to another vote in the House.

The issue is that House members are criticizing the Senate’s revisions as 'a complete mess' and are unwilling to pass the bill in its current form. If the House amends the bill, the Senate will need to vote on it again, making it unlikely that everything will be completed by Independence Day in just two days, as President Trump hopes.

Currently, House members have several complaints. On one side are those criticizing the bill for significantly increasing the budget deficit. Because the proposed tax cuts are large, expenditures should be reduced, but critics believe Medicaid cuts are insufficient. In particular, Andy Harris, the Maryland Representative who leads the budget hawk Freedom Caucus, warned Speaker Mike Johnson that the bill may fail in its current form. The House version is estimated to increase the federal budget deficit by $280 billion over 10 years, while the Senate version is expected to increase it by $330 billion.

On the other hand, some believe that the problem is the bill spends too little. This is the exact opposite view. Moderate members worry the scale of Medicaid cuts is so large that people will be hurt, and steep reductions in tax credits for clean energy might jeopardize newly attracted investments.

However, the Republican Party publicly claims that the bill's impact on the federal deficit is 'zero.' They are seeking to use the 'budget reconciliation' process, a procedure that, unlike regular legislation, amendments, or repeals (which require 60 votes in the Senate), allows passage by a simple majority. With 53 seats in the Senate, the Republicans need to use reconciliation to pass the bill without Democratic support.

However, there are rules for reconciliation, even though it requires fewer votes to pass. The rule is the 'Byrd rule,' proposed by former Senator Robert Byrd (Democrat, West Virginia, died in 2010). In summary, budget reconciliation cannot be used for provisions that negatively impact the federal budget beyond a set period (about 10 years), include clauses unrelated to spending or revenue, or change social security programs. The OBBBA violates all these rules. Among the bill’s 940 pages, much exceeds mere 'budget adjustments.' The cuts to social security (Medicaid) are a key element, and there are numerous evaluations that it will negatively affect the federal budget.

President Trump and White House officials are personally inviting and lobbying Republican dissenters. The current House makeup is 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. If every Republican votes in favor, the bill easily passes. They can afford for up to four Republicans to vote against, or up to seven to abstain.

However, some sources told Axios that more than 20 Republicans plan to vote against the amendment. When the bill passed the House in May, it narrowly passed 215-214.

Physically, there is little time left to pass the final bill by Independence Day. Lawmakers must be present in Congress. At the Speaker's request, representatives are flying from their districts to Washington, D.C., but some are having trouble due to unexpected flight cancellations and other issues.

Nonetheless, it seems unlikely that the bill will ultimately be voted down. President Trump’s core policies are all included, and lawmakers, despite their individual complaints, face strong pressure to vote yes out of fear of political backlash. House members, whose terms last two years, also fear losing the support of Trump and his voters in next year’s midterm elections. However, if discussions drag on, it is still possible that they will miss the Independence Day deadline.

Washington — Sang-eun Lee, Correspondent selee@hankyung.com