Wall Street Keeps a Close Eye on Trump Tariffs [New York Stock Market Weekly Outlook]

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Hit Record Highs Last Week

Trump Tariff Risks Already Priced into the Market

Negative Impact Could Be Limited

This week (7th to 11th, local time), the direction of the New York Stock Exchange is expected to hinge on President Donald Trump's tariff policies. President Trump announced that he will send 12 tariff-related letters on the 7th. The market considers President Trump's remarks on the 7th, as well as the mutual-tariff extension deadline on the 8th, to be especially significant.

However, the negative impact on the New York Stock Exchange may be limited. The S&P 500 and tech-focused NASDAQ Composite Index both hit record highs on the last trading day (the 3rd). According to Bandari Research, individual investors made a net purchase of $155.3 billion in single stocks and ETFs during the first half of this year.

Wall Street believes that the risks from President Trump's taxation policies are already reflected in the market. Furthermore, when bond investors worried about past tariff effects and Treasury yields surged, the Trump administration backed down by extending tariffs—so it is widely expected that the tariff policy will not take an extreme turn this time, either.

Meanwhile, there is some optimism for major corporations' earnings to improve due to the tax cuts pursued by President Trump as part of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill.' This bill took effect on the 4th, following President Trump’s signature.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release expected inflation on the 8th of this month. Investors will receive the minutes of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 9th. As Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair of the Fed, and Christopher Waller, a board member, recently raised the possibility of a rate cut in July, attention is focused on what views were exchanged at the June FOMC.

Most members, except for these two, called for a 'wait-and-see' approach at public appearances. Chair Jerome Powell also emphasized patience, citing his concerns over inflation due to summer tariffs.

Major corporate earnings announcements this week include Delta Air Lines and food giant Conagra Brands, both scheduled for the 10th.

New York—Shinyoung Park, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com