Matt Hougan: "The 4-Year Boom Cycle No Longer Matters... Entering a Prolonged Bull Market"

A claim has emerged that the long-held '4-year cycle theory', once considered a standard in the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market, is no longer valid.

On the 25th (local time), Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, stated on X (formerly Twitter) that "the forces that previously drove the 4-year cycle have weakened, and more powerful forces are now at play over a long-term timeline."

Hougan also believes that inflows from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and institutional funds are shaping trends distinct from the 4-year cycle. He said, "ETF fund inflows are a structural shift spanning 5–10 years, which started last year," and added, "Institutional investors are only now beginning to consider cryptocurrency access via pensions, endowments, and the like."

He also commented that the market is still in its early stages from a regulatory standpoint in the United States. He explained, "Comprehensive regulatory alignment started in earnest this January, and infrastructure investments from Wall Street are just beginning," predicting, "This month's passage of the (stablecoin bill) Genius Act will boost billions of dollars in investments from Wall Street."

Hougan emphasized, "I could be wrong and significant volatility can be expected along the way," but overall, he foresees "a sustained and steady boom rather than a 'supercycle.'"

However, he added, "The emergence of companies using Treasury-style Bitcoin strategies could represent a new risk. That is something that warrants close attention."