Despite Trade Disputes… China’s July Exports Surpass Market Expectations

Increased by 7.2% Year-on-Year to $321.78 Billion

Rare Earth Exports Down Compared to Previous Month

China’s exports in July this year far exceeded market forecasts.

According to the Chinese Customs Administration on the 7th, China’s exports in July (in dollar terms) reached $321.78 billion (about ₩445.5 trillion), a 7.2% increase compared to the same month last year. This surpassed the projections of Reuters (5.4%) and Bloomberg News (5.6%) as well as the June export growth rate (5.8%). China’s imports in July were $223.54 billion, up 4.1% from July last year. The import growth rate also greatly exceeded the market forecast (-1.0%). The trade surplus in July was calculated at $98.24 billion. Looking at the total from January to July this year, exports increased by 6.1% and imports decreased by 2.7%.

The decline in trade with the United States, which is engaged in a tariff war, has become even more pronounced. From January to July, China’s exports to the U.S. dropped to $251.3722 billion, a decrease of 12.6%, and U.S. imports also fell to $85.8514 billion, down by 10.3%.

Rare earths, through which China has been expanding its influence recently by imposing export control measures on countries, saw total exports from January to July reach 38,563 tons, slightly up from the same period last year (34,032 tons). However, as China has begun to weaponize rare earths in earnest, exports in July were only 5,994 tons, a decrease of about 22.6% compared to June (7,742 tons).

Bloomberg evaluated that despite the high U.S. tariffs, China’s export growth exceeded expectations. Companies saw good export performance by shipping goods as quickly as possible to avoid tariff risks, but whether such front-loading of exports will continue for the rest of the year remains to be seen.

Beijing = Eun-jung Kim, correspondent kej@hankyung.com