JP Morgan: "US Fed expected to cut rates in September... Bitcoin may see a rally similar to last year"

Global investment bank (IB) JP Morgan predicts that the US central bank, the Fed, will lower its benchmark interest rate this September, and forecasts that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a sharp surge similar to last year.

According to Forbes on the 8th (local time), Michael Feroli, JP Morgan's chief economist, stated in a recent research report, "At the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Powell will need to consider risk management factors beyond just employment and inflation," adding, "The slowdown in the labor market and President Trump’s nomination of the moderate Steven Miron to the Fed board have increased the likelihood of a rate cut." Previously, Miron was nominated on an interim basis as the successor to Director Adriana Kugler.

JP Morgan expects the Fed to lower rates by 0.25 percentage points at the September meeting, while also leaving room for a 0.5 percentage point cut if employment indicators deteriorate further. According to CME FedWatch, the market currently reflects about a 90% chance of a rate cut in September.

Meanwhile, experts view the current environment as similar to the second half of 2024. Last August, amid concerns over an economic slowdown, the Fed executed rapid consecutive rate cuts from September to December, during which Bitcoin prices doubled. Presto Research analysts Peter Chung and Min Jung evaluated, "Current market conditions are remarkably similar to those of that time."