[Morning Briefing] Heavy Rain Continues in Northern Gyeonggi for Two Days…New York Stock Market Closes Higher for Second Consecutive Day

◆Heavy Rain in the Central Region…30~70㎜ per Hour in the Capital Area

On Thursday the 14th, the southern regions and Jeju Island are expected to be mostly cloudy at times, while the central region will generally be overcast with very heavy and abundant rain. As of 4 a.m. today, strong rain accompanied by gusts, thunder, and lightning, at a rate of 30~50㎜ per hour, was falling mainly in Incheon, northern Gyeonggi, and northern inland Gangwon. Other parts of the capital area, inland Gangwon, and northern Chungnam, including Seoul, saw heavy rainfall of 10~30㎜ per hour. The accumulated precipitation from midnight of the previous day to 4 a.m. today was Paju 298.3㎜, Ongjin Deokjeokbuk-ri 272.1㎜, Incheon Yeongjongdo 268.0㎜, Dongducheon Habongam 266.0㎜, Gimpo 253.0㎜, Cheorwon 161.1㎜, Hwacheon Gwangdeoksan 160.0㎜, Seoul 138.7㎜, and more. As the west sea continued to supply a strong rain cloud band that is long from east to west and narrow from north to south, rainfall of 30~70㎜ per hour is expected to continue in the capital area until the morning. During the morning, very heavy rain of about 30㎜ per hour is also forecast for the capital area, inland Gangwon, northern mountainous Gangwon, and northern Chungnam. The northern part of Gyeongbuk and the western part of Gyeongnam will also see raindrops during the morning, and the southern regions and Jeju Island will experience showers. Some areas are expected to see the rain subside from the afternoon. The expected precipitation is: Capital area 50~150㎜ (over 180㎜ in some areas), inland and mountainous Gangwon 30~80㎜ (over 120㎜ in some areas), northern Chungnam, central and northern Chungbuk 20~60㎜ (over 80㎜ in some areas), northern east coast of Gangwon 10~40㎜, Daejeon, Sejong, Chungnam, and southern Chungbuk 5~40㎜, and central and southern east coast of Gangwon 5~20㎜.

◆Extreme Torrential Downpours in Northern Gyeonggi…Cumulative Rainfall in Paju 302.9㎜

On the 14th, heavy rain continued for a second day in northern Gyeonggi, calling for caution. According to the Metropolitan Meteorological Administration, as of 6 a.m. today, the cumulative rainfall since 0 a.m. on the 13th was Paju 309.6㎜, Dongducheon Habongam 270.5㎜, Yeoncheon Cheongsan 269.5㎜, Pocheon Ildong 255.0㎜, Goyang Jugyo 249.5㎜, Yangju Jangheung 239.0㎜, etc. The Meteorological Administration forecasted an additional 50~120㎜, with up to 150㎜ possible in some areas, until the afternoon. Due to heavy rain in the early morning, damage also followed. Paju city sent two disaster emergency texts to residents of Nulnori and Deokcheon-ri at 3:14 a.m. and 3:24 a.m., instructing immediate evacuation to Papyeong Elementary and Middle Schools as the Nulnochun exceeded the planned flood level of 5.1m. Fortunately, as the water levels subsided, the evacuation order was lifted at 6:30 a.m. In Dongducheon, traffic was controlled in both directions on the Yeoncheon Cheongsan IC–Dongducheon Habongam section of National Route 3 detour tunnel, starting at 3:20 a.m., due to soil runoff inside the tunnel. In Yeoncheon County, a warning text was sent at 5:30 a.m. as the Pilseunggyo bridge over Imjin River exceeded 1m, the threshold for ‘river visitors evacuation.’ Train service on the Gyeoweseon line between Uijeongbu Station and Goyang Daegok Station has been suspended since 11:35 a.m. on the 13th and is scheduled to resume with the first train on the 15th. As of 6 a.m. today, no casualties due to torrential rain have been reported in northern Gyeonggi.

◆New York Stock Market Closes Higher for Second Day

Optimism over interest rate cuts fueled the three major indices in the New York Stock Exchange to close higher for the second consecutive day. On the 13th (U.S. Eastern Time), at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,922.27, up 1.04% from the previous session. The S&P 500 index closed at 6,466.58, up 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at 21,713.14, up 0.14%. As the market grew nearly 100% certain of a September rate cut, buying focused on blue-chip and small to mid-cap stocks, which benefit from declining short-term loan rates. The Russell 2000 index, primarily composed of small and mid-cap stocks, surged nearly 2% again today. The blue-chip-heavy Dow index also rose more than 1%, continuing its run of 1% gains for a second consecutive day. Scott Besant, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, said in an interview with foreign press that “starting with a 50bp cut (big cut) in September, continuous rate cuts are possible.” However, it is also reported that there remains considerable caution within the Federal Reserve.

◆Trump Communicates with Ukraine and Europe, Pressures Putin for Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump, at an event held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, DC on the 13th (local time), answered a question on whether “Russia will face consequences if President Putin does not end the war with Ukraine after talks,” by saying, “There will be very serious consequences.” This was a sort of warning ahead of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for the 15th in Alaska. However, Trump did not specify what those ‘consequences’ would be. The remarks came immediately after a video conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and leaders of major European countries, drawing additional attention. Analysts interpret this as Trump signaling he will not be soft in front of President Putin, using his communication with Ukraine and Europe as leverage.

◆Kim Yo-Jong Calls Lee Jae-myung Administration's North Korea Policy “Media Manipulation Game”

Kim Yo-Jong, Deputy Department Director of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made it clear on the 14th that she devalued the Lee Jae-myung administration’s recent tension-easing measures toward North Korea and intends to maintain a hostile stance. In a statement titled “Seoul’s Hopes Are Nothing but Foolish Dreams” released through the Korean Central News Agency on the 14th, Kim stated, “Our stance toward a dangerous and despicable country that poses a constant security threat must be more explicit, and the Republic of Korea must, by our national law, be permanently entrenched as the most hostile threat to our identity.” Kim refuted President Lee’s remarks on the 12th that “the North is also removing some loudspeakers,” saying, “To clarify the facts, that is an unfounded one-sided assumption and media manipulation game,” and added, “We have never removed the loudspeakers deployed at the border, nor do we have any intention to do so.” She also said regarding the partial adjustments to the “Ulchi Freedom Shield” joint exercises starting on the 18th, “It is not something to be praised and will only prove futile.”

Soojin Choi, Hankyung.com Reporter naive@hankyung.com