Putin·Zelensky to Meet Soon... Only the 'Territorial Negotiation' Remains

Possibility of Russia-Ukraine summit within 2 weeks

Trump: “If things go well, I’ll hold trilateral talks”

On the 18th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he began coordinating a summit between Ukraine and Russia. The war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022, has reached a turning point.

After a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and leaders from the UK, Germany, France, and other European countries at the White House, President Trump said on social media, “I called President Vladimir Putin of Russia.” He continued, “After that meeting, there will be a trilateral summit with the two presidents and myself.” President Zelensky also said, “I am ready to meet President Putin without any preconditions.”

According to AFP, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also agreed on a plan for President Putin to hold a bilateral meeting with President Zelensky within two weeks. However, Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy advisor at the Kremlin, played down the possibility, referring to the bilateral summit as an “idea,” so the actual realization of the summit remains uncertain. Russia wants the territory of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

Regarding security guarantees for Ukraine, President Trump stated that “European countries will provide them through cooperation with the United States.” Therefore, the biggest issue going forward is expected to be the ‘territorial negotiations’ between President Zelensky and President Putin.

Zelensky secures U.S. and European security guarantees: “Ready to meet Putin unconditionally”

Putin·Zelensky to Meet Soon... “End of war results will come in 1–2 weeks”

On the 18th (local time), President Donald Trump said, “President Vladimir Putin of Russia has accepted security guarantees for Ukraine.” This was announced during a meeting at the White House with President Volodymyr Zelensky and seven European leaders. He also said, “Security guarantees for Ukraine will be provided by European countries in cooperation with the United States.” With President Zelensky having secured security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, the focus now shifts to the ‘territorial negotiations’ between Ukraine and Russia.

◇ “Security guarantees will be formalized within 10 days”

Through the White House summit and subsequent social media posts, President Trump reaffirmed the security guarantee by saying, “They (Europe) are the first line of defense,” but “we will help them. We will be involved.” The meeting began as a bilateral summit between President Trump and President Zelensky, then expanded to include European leaders. The expanded summit included the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, the European Union (EU), and NATO.

However, it is still unclear exactly how the security guarantees for Ukraine will be implemented. Europe is hoping for a NATO-style collective defense mechanism that would require automatic intervention if Ukraine is attacked. There is also consideration of a possible European troop deployment. When asked repeatedly about the possibility of a U.S. troop presence, President Trump gave no clear answer, suggesting that the U.S. is not considering troop deployment.

It is known that, during the multilateral meeting with European leaders, President Trump called President Putin. He is now coordinating a bilateral summit between Putin and Zelensky and has declared that a trilateral meeting including himself will follow.

After the White House meeting, President Zelensky held a press conference at Lafayette Square, stating, “The U.S. has sent an important signal that it will participate as a security guarantor and help coordinate this effort. The details of the security guarantees will be drafted and formalized in documents within 10 days.” The Financial Times (FT) reported that Ukraine, as part of a peace agreement with Russia and seeking U.S. security guarantees, decided to purchase $100 billion (approximately ₩140 trillion) worth of American weapons.

President Zelensky did not offer a direct stance on conceding territory. He maintained a cautious position, saying, “The territorial issue is something for Russia and Ukraine to decide together.” President Trump also avoided direct pressure, saying, “That is a decision for Ukraine.”

◇ Russia’s response is “lukewarm”

The key question is whether Russia will act as President Trump envisions. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Putin has not once met face-to-face with President Zelensky.

While President Trump said that the two leaders will meet soon, the atmosphere on the Russian side is somewhat different. Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy advisor at the Kremlin, mentioned only that “the level of negotiators participating in the talks between Russia and Ukraine was discussed,” deliberately avoiding the phrase “summit between leaders.”

President Trump believes Russia agreed to the security guarantee plan for Ukraine, but there has been no public confirmation yet. President Putin has repeatedly said he would never accept Ukraine joining NATO.

Even if a ‘big deal’ brings a temporary end to the war, there are still concerns that this may not be the conclusion. If Russia secures the Donbas region in the negotiations, it might use this as a foothold for a renewed invasion. It is also difficult to rule out the possibility that President Trump has been drawn into President Putin’s strategy.

Just before holding the multilateral meeting with European leaders at the White House, President Trump, unaware that his microphone was on, remarked, “It seems (Putin) wants to negotiate for my sake,” adding, “You see? Sounds ridiculous, right?” This revealed that he sees the potential for successful negotiations based on his positive relationship with Putin.

Washington = Lee Sang-eun, correspondent selee@hankyung.com