U.S. with increased corporate investment… Q2 surprise growth of 3.3%

Impact of tariff reprieve on import decline

The U.S. economy posted a surprise growth of more than 3% in the second quarter this year. It grew by a larger margin than the advance estimate due to decreased imports and increased consumption.

The U.S. Commerce Department said on the 28th that the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (preliminary) was 3.3% (annualized rate from the previous quarter). The figure was revised up by 0.3 percentage points from the advance estimate (3.0%) and also exceeded the Dow Jones consensus estimate (3.1%).

First-quarter GDP contracted to -0.5% due to a surge in imports, but it rebounded to positive in the second quarter in just one quarter thanks to declining imports and rising consumption. The Trump administration's tariff reprieve reduced temporary inventory stocking, sharply cutting imports, which was a main factor behind the recovery in the growth rate.

Unlike South Korea, the U.S. reports GDP statistics by annualizing seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter growth rates. In GDP statistics, an increase in exports raises the growth rate, while an increase in imports lowers it. Corporate profits, which fell by the largest margin since 2020 in Q1, rose 1.7% in Q2. The preliminary GDP estimate is calculated by reflecting additional economic indicators that were not included when the advance estimate was released.

Bloomberg News analyzed that this upward revision was influenced by expanded corporate investment. Corporate investment in Q2 increased 5.7%, far exceeding the estimate (1.9%).

Excluding recent tariff-related volatility, Q2 economic activity is assessed to have generally recovered to a moderate level. There are projections that as consumers and businesses adapt to the Trump administration's trade policies, the economy will grow at a moderate pace.

An Sang-mi reporter saramin@hankyung.com