"Macroeconomic uncertainty… Bitcoin could fall below $100,000"

Son Min

Summary

Macroeconomic variables, U.S. tariff pressure, and slowing economic indicators could pull Bitcoin's price below $100,000.
The analyst said downward pressure on Bitcoin could increase after the September PPI and CPI announcements, and the decline could accelerate due to perpetual futures open interest (OI) reaching a year-to-date high.
Since 2011, the average September return has been –4.6%, and the attractive entry range is projected to be $94,000~$101,000.

Depending on macroeconomic variables, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $100,000.

On the 3rd (local time), The Block reported that Bettle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research, said in a report, "The macro factors being overlooked could pull Bitcoin below $100,000," and "U.S. tariff pressure and slowing economic indicators will have a major impact on the downtrend."

He pointed out that tariff risks still remain. Lunde said, "Before long, the effect of tariffs will be fully reflected in U.S. economic indicators," and "after the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) to be released in September, downward pressure on Bitcoin will increase." He added, "Currently, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin perpetual futures is at a year-to-date high, so declines could accelerate."

Seasonal factors were also mentioned. He explained, "Since 2011, Bitcoin's average September return has been –4.6%," and "if seasonal effects coincide with macroeconomic conditions, the possibility of a decline becomes greater."

He projected that an attractive entry range is $94,000~$101,000. Lunde said, "I already sold some of the Bitcoin I held in August," and "the attractive entry range is around $94,000~$101,000."

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