Summary
- CryptoQuant's xwinfinance analyst assessed that the Fed's rate cut could be a turning point for the Bitcoin market.
- In past cases, stablecoin inflows and declines in Bitcoin holdings acted as signals of a bull market.
- He warned that if a rate cut actually occurs in the future, the same pattern is likely to recur, but volatility could increase initially.

With the Fed's rate cut imminent, there is a view that the Bitcoin market could enter a new bull phase.
An analyst from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, xwinfinance, said in a QuickTake analysis on the 10th, "The Fed's rate cut is not a mere macroeconomic event but a turning point that can trigger structural changes in the crypto asset market," adding, "It could accelerate flows into Bitcoin as idle funds are deployed."
He explained based on past cases. When the Fed carried out a large-scale rate cut in March 2020, Bitcoin plunged along with the stock market, but an increase in stablecoin holdings on exchanges led to buying pressure while Bitcoin holdings declined. This showed that investors began withdrawing coins for long-term custody, and ultimately became the starting point of the 2021 bull market.
The same trend repeated when the Fed shifted back to an easing stance at the end of 2024. While stablecoins steadily flowed into exchanges and Bitcoin holdings fell, Bitcoin continued to rise, hitting new highs despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
xwinfinance emphasized, "If rate cuts are actually implemented in the future, the same pattern is likely to be reproduced," adding, "If stablecoin inflows to exchanges increase and Bitcoin holdings decrease, these would be key signals supporting a bullish scenario." However, he also warned that volatility could increase initially due to position adjustments and tests of support levels.

YM Lee
20min@bloomingbit.ioCrypto Chatterbox_ tlg@Bloomingbit_YMLEE

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