Bitcoin implied volatility hits highest level in 2 months…reflects expectations for 'seasonal rally' in Oct-Nov

Bitcoin (BTC) implied volatility (IV) has risen to its highest level in about two and a half months, increasing the likelihood that the seasonal strength that repeats every October and November will reappear, according to an analysis.

On the 10th (local time), crypto asset (cryptocurrency) specialist media CoinDesk reported that the 'Volmex Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV)', which represents implied volatility in the Bitcoin options market, recently surpassed 42%, marking the highest level since the end of August. This means the market expects greater price volatility going forward.

Although Bitcoin's price underwent some adjustments after briefly surpassing 126,000 dollars earlier this month, implied volatility has continued to rise. Historically, BVIV tends to surge after mid-October each year, and similar volatility expansions occurred in 2023 and 2024 during this period.

CoinDesk research said, "This year's volatility pattern is very similar to 2023," and analyzed, "Implied volatility begins to rise sharply from late October, and Bitcoin's price is also likely to show strength around the same time."

According to data analytics firm Coinglass, over the past 10 years Bitcoin has recorded an average weekly return of 6% during the two weeks of late October, and in November it has surged by an average of more than 45%, making it the strongest period of the year.

The outlet said, "In the short term, expanding implied volatility reflects buying inflows during corrections and expectations for a year-end rally," adding, "However, as Bitcoin matures over the long term, both returns and volatility are expected to gradually moderate."