Bitcoin's $108,000 level precarious… options market 'warning light' turned on

Doohyun Hwang

Summary

Bitcoin tested the $108,000 support level, and increased selling in the options market signaled market weakness.
The delta skew exceeded 10% and put option volume was over 50% higher than call option volume, indicating weakened investor sentiment.
Despite large miner transfers and macroeconomic uncertainty, some analysts say it is a short-term correction and that extreme fear periods could become rebound opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell intraday to $107,400 on the 16th (local time), putting the key support at $108,000 to the test. In the options market, bearish bets surged and investor sentiment contracted.

According to the Binance Tether (USDT) market, Bitcoin opened at $110,763 and dropped intraday to $107,424. After reaching an all-time high on the 6th, a correction continued, and the market's concern is growing that "this sharp decline could signal the end of the bull market."

According to CoinDesk, the options market's delta skew indicator exceeded 10%. Typically this indicator moves between -6% and +6%, and if it spikes above 10% it is interpreted as traders paying high premiums for put options. This is taken as a clear bearish signal. Indeed, on options exchange Deribit, put option volume was recorded as more than 50% greater than call option volume.

The market weakness was underpinned by US-China trade tensions and an extended federal government shutdown. President Donald Trump recently said he is "considering additional trade sanctions in response to China's halt on imports of US soybeans," heightening macroeconomic uncertainty. Delays in various economic data releases due to the shutdown further dampened risk asset sentiment.

Warning signs also appeared in on-chain indicators. According to CryptoQuant, the amount moved from miner addresses to exchanges in the past week was 51,000 BTC, the largest since July. Large miner deposits are generally interpreted as a signal that selling pressure may increase.

However, some analysts say the decline should not be seen as excessive pessimism. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, said, "This decline is likely a short-term correction caused by external factors," and added, "Extreme fear periods have historically acted as buying opportunities. The recent liquidation wave could instead become a springboard into a new rebound phase."

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