New York stock market nears record high…Trump "Will make a trade agreement with China" [Morning Briefing]

◆ "May lower tariffs on China"…New York stocks closed strong

U.S. President Donald Trump said he may lower tariffs on China, and all three major New York indices closed higher. On the 20th local time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.12% at 46,706.58, the S&P 500 index rose 1.07% to 6,735.13, and the Nasdaq index jumped 1.37% to 22,990.54. All three indices approached record highs on a closing basis. President Trump had warned of imposing an additional 100% tariff on China starting November 1, but he said that if a trade agreement is reached he would lower tariffs on China, which helped spread investors' risk-on sentiment. There is also growing hope that the U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted nearly three weeks, could end this week.

◆ Trump: "Will make a very strong agreement with China…If not, China will be in trouble"

President Trump vowed to make a very strong trade agreement with China. He said he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in Korea later this month. He said, "I will make a very fair agreement with President Xi," and "I think we will make a very strong trade agreement." He added, "If they do not deal with us, China will be in big trouble and I don't know if they can endure it," and emphasized, "They threatened us with rare earths and we responded with tariffs, but we can also threaten them with many other things such as aircraft."

◆ Japan launches new cabinet today…first female prime minister Sanae Takaichi

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi is expected to be elected as Japan's first female prime minister in the special Diet prime ministerial election on the 21st. She faced a crisis when the centrist-conservative Komeito, which had cooperated with the LDP for 26 years, left the coalition, but the LDP reached an agreement the previous day to form a new coalition with the hardline conservative Japan Innovation Party. The prime ministerial election in the House of Representatives (lower house) will be decided immediately if a candidate wins a majority in the first round; the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party hold a total of 231 seats, two short of the 233-seat majority. Four independent lawmakers are considering voting for leader Takaichi, so the result could be decided in the first round.

◆ IMF: "South Koreans' real standard of living lower than Taiwan's"

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) analyzed that Koreans' per capita GDP level as experienced in real life is about $20,000 lower annually than Taiwan's. The IMF forecasts that South Korea's per capita GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis will record $65,080 this year, up 3.5% from last year. PPP-based per capita GDP reflects the real purchasing power of a currency to compare living standards between countries. This year's figure for South Korea ranks around 35th worldwide. Taiwan's PPP-based per capita GDP is expected to be $85,127, $20,047 higher than South Korea's. Unlike South Korea, where consumer prices have surged year after year, Taiwan has maintained price stability, leading to a higher real standard of living.

◆ 1.03365 billion appetite suppressant pills prescribed over 5 years…90% women

Over the past five years, the cumulative number of prescribed narcotic appetite suppressants amounted to 1,033,650,000 pills. Even last year, 700,000 people were prescribed phentermine, 500,000 were prescribed phendimetrazine, and more than 70,000 were prescribed amfepramone. The prevalence of phentermine use relative to the population is estimated at 0.31% in the U.S., while South Korea's rate is 1.35%, about 4.3 times higher. Of the 1,080,000 patients prescribed appetite suppressants, 969,341 (89.7%) were women and 111,516 were men. Some 5,899 people aged 10 and under were also prescribed about 550,000 appetite suppressant pills. Critics point out that prescription standards are lax and that management and supervision of misuse are inadequate.

◆ Early winter weather in October with morning lows of 1°C…Seoul feels like 2°C

On Tuesday the 21st, cold air moving south from the north will bring early winter weather. Morning lows are expected to be 1~14°C, and daytime highs 14~20°C. Strong winds will make the perceived temperature lower. Morning lows in Yangju and Paju in Gyeonggi Province will be as low as 1°C, and Seoul's morning temperature is forecast at 4°C with a perceived temperature of 2°C. The Korea Meteorological Administration explained, "Gangwon's east coast, the Gyeongsang region, and Jeju will be mostly cloudy, and the rest of the country will be mostly cloudy but will gradually clear from the morning." Expected rainfall amounts are: △Gangwon east coast 5~10mm △Gyeongbuk east coast and northeastern mountains, Busan, Ulsan, and eastern inland of South Gyeongsang 5~10mm △Ulleungdo, Dokdo less than 5mm. Fine dust concentrations will be at 'good' to 'moderate' levels across all regions.

Sesung Oh Hankyung.com reporter sesung@hankyung.com